Bijan Robinson — Week 1: Twenty-Nine Touches, and Watt's Pick-Six
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Robinson touched the ball twenty-nine times Sunday — twenty-one carries for eighty-three yards and eight catches on ten targets for ninety and the Falcons' only touchdown — and the throw that decided the game was meant for him: second and ten at the Atlanta forty-four, T.J. Watt intercepted it and ran thirty-five yards the other way. Atlanta lost 20–13 to the Steelers.
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Second and 10 at the Atlanta 44, 14 16 left in the fourth quarter, Falcons down 10 to 13. Cooper Rush threw short right for Bijan Robinson, nine yards behind the line of scrimmage, and T.J. Watt caught it at the 35 and ran it in. That play was worth −8.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and it moved Pittsburgh's chance of winning by 24 points of win probability, which is the share of games a team in that situation goes on to win. The snap before it was Robinson up the middle for no gain, Watt on the tackle; the snap before that, with two seconds left in the third, was Robinson around right end for 20, the longest run either team had all day.
The ball went to Robinson more than to anyone on the field, and the biggest plays went both ways. 21 carries for 83 yards, no touchdowns, 10 of the 21 successful and eight first downs, but −2.1 expected points in total, mostly because of two plays. Third and one at the Pittsburgh 46, eight 29 left in the half, down seven to 13: up the middle, fumbled, recovered his own ball seven yards back at the Atlanta 47. Third and one at the Pittsburgh 24, 11 23 left in the fourth, down 10 to 20: left end, no gain, and Nick Folk kicked a 43-yarder. The catches: 10 targets, eight receptions, 90 yards, one touchdown — third and eight at the Pittsburgh 23, a minute 19 left in the first, down nothing to three, a throw four yards behind the line carried 27 yards to the end zone, +3.6. Nine of the 10 targets came out at +6.2; the tenth was the pick.
Atlanta ran 31 times: Robinson 21, Brian Robinson nine, Drake London one. 14 of his carries came after halftime, when the Falcons ran 20 times and had 10 pass plays. 10 targets on 26 pass plays is more than a third of the passing game, with London next at four. Three of the 10 targets were third downs, all caught, only the touchdown converted. Atlanta was two of 12 on third down and never snapped the ball inside the Pittsburgh 20.
The June preview put Robinson third among running backs last season on volume and role rather than a touchdown spike, and titled the whole case "the touchdowns owe him money." Sunday paid one back through the air and none on the ground, on 29 touches and a hundred 73 yards from scrimmage with Cooper Rush throwing. One afternoon does not change the volume read; it did add a pick-six on a throw he never got to touch. Atlanta is home to the Panthers on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is carries inside the 20, because there were none.
_Data via nflverse._
When Bijan Robinson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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