Bo Nix — Week 3: Sixteen Down, Then the Winning Run

26 to 23, Rams, 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter, third and goal at the Los Angeles one. Bo Nix went up the middle for the touchdown. +1.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 19.6 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, and the extra point made it 30 to 26. On second down he had been ruled in from the two around right end, and the replay official reversed it and put the ball at the one. The drive stayed alive twice on Rams penalties: a Josh Wallace interception at the eight on third and six came back on Wallace's own pass-interference flag, and a third-and-five incompletion at the five became first and goal at the two on an illegal-use-of-hands call on Quentin Lake.

The line: 17 completions on 34 throws, a hundred 86 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, one sack; four carries, all by design, seven yards and the touchdown. Six of 12 for 53 yards before halftime, down 16 to nothing. 11 of 22 for a hundred 33 after, with both touchdown passes — five yards to Pat Bryant on third and five, and eight to Nate Adkins on second and eight — and both two-point throws, to Jaylen Waddle and then Bryant, the second of which tied it at 16 with two 15 left in the third. The interception was second and 14 at the Los Angeles 48 with 13 oh seven left, tied, short left for Courtland Sutton, returned 26 yards by Wallace: Denver's costliest play by both measures, and the Rams kicked a field goal from it. The winning drive started at the Denver 35 with three 38 left, and after a holding penalty made it second and 20 he hit Bryant for 39 and Troy Franklin for 21 on back-to-back throws. On third down he threw eight times, completed three and converted all three. The one sack was seven yards by Omar Speights on third and two before halftime. Denver's 35 pass plays finished at −3.2 expected points, nineteenth of the 30 teams that have played this week.

34 throws: seven each to RJ Harvey, Waddle and Sutton, two each to J.K. Dobbins, Evan Engram, Bryant and Adkins, one each to Franklin and Tyler Badie, and three with no receiver named.

Back in June the preview put Nix on the watchlist after a broken ankle in January and named the designed-run rate in September as the thing to watch, because his running is the swing factor in what he produces. Week One had no designed runs. Week Two had two. Sunday had four, including a third-and-one conversion and the winner. Three games: 56 of 93 for 605 yards, four touchdown passes, three interceptions, and Sunday was the first of the three with more than one touchdown pass. Denver is at the 49ers on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._