Bo Nix — Week 4: No Interception, Still Short

17 to six, 49ers, four 10 left in the fourth quarter, first and 10 at the San Francisco 13. Bo Nix threw short left to Jaylen Waddle for the touchdown. +2.1 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 8.6 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Tyler Badie ran in the two-point try, and it was 17 to 14. It was Denver's only snap of the day inside the San Francisco 20.

The line: 25 of 42, 214 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, no sacks; two scrambles for 10 yards and no designed runs. Before halftime, 14 of 24 for 93, and his pass plays came to −3.2 expected points. After it, 11 of 18 for a hundred 21 and +7.9. His best throw by expected points was third and six from the Denver 19 late in the third quarter, down 10 to three: 30 yards to Pat Bryant, +3.3, on the drive that ended in Denver's second field goal. On third down he threw 13 times and converted five. He threw three passes 20 or more yards in the air and completed none, two of them for Courtland Sutton in the final 90 seconds. Down 10 with two oh seven left, he converted a fourth and three to Evan Engram, and the drive ended on a 58-yard field goal try that went wide right.

10 throws went to RJ Harvey, six each to Waddle and Sutton, and five to Engram.

Back in June the preview put Nix on the watchlist after a broken ankle and named the designed-run rate in September as the thing to watch. Week 1 had none, Week 2 two, Week 3 four. Sunday had none. Through the first three weeks he had an interception in every game; Sunday he had none. Four games: 81 of a hundred 35, 819 yards, five touchdown passes, three interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._