C.J. Stroud — Week 1: First and Nine at the Nine, Then Two Sacks
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Stroud completed twenty-six of thirty-eight for two hundred seventy-four yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, and had Houston at the Buffalo nine with twenty-five seconds left, down 31–36, after Jaylin Noel's eighteen-yard catch. The next three snaps were a nine-yard sack, an incompletion, and a strip-sack by Greg Rousseau that Buffalo recovered. Rousseau also stripped him on third and twelve in the first quarter, in a 36–31 loss to the Bills in Houston.
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Houston's win probability was about 55 percent with 25 seconds left Sunday, first and nine at the Buffalo nine, down 31 to 36. Win probability is the chance of winning from that situation, score and clock. Three snaps later Houston was no longer on offense. C.J. Stroud was sacked by Deone Walker for nine yards, −21 points of win probability; threw incomplete deep right for Nico Collins on second and 18; and on third and 18 was sacked by Greg Rousseau, fumbled, and Buffalo's Terrel Bernard recovered at the 24, −30 points. Josh Allen knelt to end it.
It had happened before, in the first quarter. Third and 12 at the Houston 34, nine 40 left, scoreless: Rousseau's sack, Stroud's fumble, Ed Oliver's recovery at the 32, and Buffalo's possession from there was three plays and a 46-yard field goal. That one was worth −4.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 12 points of win probability. The rest of the line was good: 26 completions on 38 throws, 274 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks. The touchdowns were 12 yards short middle to Collins with 31 seconds left in the half, the play after Jaylin Noel's 35-yard catch, and seven yards short right to David Montgomery on second and seven with 13 39 left in the fourth for a 28 to 27 lead. The 41 pass plays came out at +1.5 expected points in total, and the two fumbles are the reason the number is that small: without the −4.3 and the −2.7, the other 39 pass plays were worth about +8 and a half.
He also ran twice: a 15-yard scramble on third and 12 from the Houston 38 in the second quarter, +2.6; and third and one at the Buffalo 22 with 47 seconds left in the third, no huddle, behind the left guard for no gain, −1.1, before Woody Marks converted the fourth down. Houston converted seven of 16 third downs, counting only the ones that stood as plays. 17 pass plays came before halftime, 24 after.
Back in June the preview's read on Stroud was a 20-first-place season among quarterbacks built on efficiency and touchdown rate, the inputs that regress most. Sunday had the efficiency — 26 of 38, no interceptions — and it had the thing the preview was not measuring, which is that both of Houston's turnovers were Stroud sacks with the ball coming loose, and one of them was the last offensive play of the game. A single loss decides nothing about regression; it did put the season's first two turnovers on one line. Houston is home to the Bengals on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
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