C.J. Stroud — Week 7: Two Touchdowns on 153 Yards

C.J. Stroud threw both of Houston's touchdowns against the Giants on the lowest-yardage day of his season: 17 of 28 for 153 yards, two scores, no interceptions and one sack, in a 27-21 overtime loss at home. Over 29 dropbacks he was worth -1.5 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.

Both touchdowns came on third down inside the 10. Down 14-6 with 39 seconds left in the half, third and 6 at the New York 6, he hit Marvin Harrison Jr. over the middle for the score, +3.61 EPA and 10 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, then found Cade Stover for the two-point conversion that tied it. The drive had started with a 43-yard throw deep over the middle to Tank Dell on first and 20. Down 21-14 with 57 seconds left in regulation, third and 3 at the 3, he threw short right to Xavier Hutchinson for the tying touchdown, +2.48 EPA and 15.8 points of win probability. His legs mattered too: tied 14-14 in the third, he pushed 2 yards on fourth and 1 at his own 42, +2.35 EPA. Overtime was two incompletions, short over the middle to Hutchinson and, on third and 10, to Harrison.

It was well below his first six weeks. Through Week 6 he was at +0.16 EPA per dropback over 237 dropbacks; here it was -0.05. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was -9.1, against +3.9 through Week 6.

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_Data via nflverse._