Dallas Goedert Camp Update — August 16: The New Offense Is Being Built Around Him

The Eagles are making a concerted effort to feature Dallas Goedert. That is the language from Geoffrey A. Knox at Eagles Wire, writing on August ninth, who reports that new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is building the offense to maximize Goedert and that his chemistry with Jalen Hurts appears to be carrying over into camp. The on-field receipt came Wednesday, at the team's eleventh practice, when Goedert caught a three-yard red-zone touchdown from Hurts, per Dave Zangaro at NBC Sports Philadelphia.

The June preview was an arithmetic exercise. Goedert scored 11 touchdowns last season after never topping five in any year of his career, and we said the scoring spike was the least repeatable thing in his file. The steady part was the volume, about five and a half targets a game, the same neighborhood he has lived in for years. Strip the touchdowns back toward his career norm and that same volume produces roughly two points a game less. Our one caveat cut upward: A.J. Brown's departure vacates a huge share of Philadelphia's targets, and if that volume flows inside, Goedert could outrun the regression.

This week's evidence is the caveat coming to life. A coordinator designing around a tight end is exactly the mechanism that would lift the five-and-a-half target baseline, and a red-zone touchdown from Hurts in a featured practice period suggests the goal-line role is not going anywhere either. None of it is game usage yet, and the starters sat Saturday's preseason loss in Baltimore, so we have no live snaps to count. But the direction of the reporting is one-sided, and it is the good side.

Does the June read hold? COMPLICATED, in Goedert's favor. The touchdown-regression math still stands, nothing about scoring rates changed this week, but the June read assumed a flat target load, and the camp reporting says the new offense may hand him a bigger one. If the role grows, the regression gets paid for out of new volume.

The checkable things for next week: whether Goedert plays and gets targeted when the starters see preseason action, and whether the practice files keep showing him as a first read in the red zone. His target rate against that five-and-a-half baseline remains the whole question. We'll check next Sunday.

_Data via nflverse._