Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert scored eleven touchdowns last season — more than his previous three seasons combined — and the market cut his price anyway. Tight end fourteen, pick one-fifteen. That's not disrespect. That's arithmetic, and it's worth checking whether the market did it right.

The season: fifteen games, sixty catches on eighty-two targets, five hundred ninety-one yards, and those eleven scores — ten-point-three Half-PPR points a game, fifth among tight ends per game, fourth in total points. A tenth of a point behind Travis Kelce for third, if you like your margins thin. It was the best per-game season of his career, in year eight, at a position where that isn't supposed to happen. He caught seventy-three percent of his targets, and Philadelphia won the East at eleven and six. He missed two weeks and still finished fourth in total points.

The career preface matters: eight seasons, never more than five touchdowns in any of them. Then eleven. The full touchdown history reads four, five, three, four, three, three, two — then eleven. One of these seasons is not like the others. His target volume, meanwhile, barely moved — five and a half a game, the same neighborhood he's lived in since twenty-nineteen. His previous per-game best — nine-five, back in twenty-twenty-two — came in a twelve-game season.

So the pattern read is unusually clean. For tight ends, targets repeat at point-eight year over year — two hundred thirty-eight player-seasons — and touchdown rate is the least repeatable stat we track. More than a third of Goedert's fantasy production last season was touchdowns. Strip the score spike back toward his career norm and the same volume produces roughly two points a game less — which lands him... tight end thirteen to fifteen. Exactly where he's priced. The market already did the touchdown math.

The situation is livelier than the price implies. Philadelphia re-signed him in March — one year, seven million, fully guaranteed, per PFT and CBS Sports — then spent a second-round pick in April on Eli Stowers, the Mackey Award tight end from Vanderbilt, per the team site. And on June first they traded A.J. Brown to New England for future draft capital, per NFL.com — which removes the biggest target magnet in the offense. DeVonta Smith becomes the clear number-one; rookie Makai Lemon and additions Marquise Brown and Dontayvion Wicks fill in behind, per NBC Sports Philadelphia. New play-caller too: Sean Mannion, hired in January after Kevin Patullo's exit, per NFL.com. Hurts remains. And SI's June minicamp coverage noted the offense opening a period in three-tight-end personnel — with rookie Stowers and veteran Johnny Mundt behind Goedert, the formation now exists. And the one-year deal means both sides re-decide in March — a contract-year tight end with a drafted heir is its own quiet subplot.

The price: TE14 for the TE4-by-total, TE5-by-rate season, discounted for exactly the regression our own patterns predict. TE14 assumes a matchup streamer; the per-game record says weekly starter; the touchdown math says the truth lives in between. Our verdict: no call — the market beat us to the math, and we'll say so. The caveat cuts upward for once: A.J. Brown's departure vacates a huge share of the targets, and if that volume flows inside, Goedert could out-earn the regression — while rookie Stowers pulls the same argument the other way.

Watch his September target rate against the five-and-a-half baseline, and how often Philadelphia plays two tight ends near the goal line. Heavy-personnel looks would mean the rookie complements the role rather than cannibalizing it. He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.