De'Von Achane — Week 2: Twenty Carries, Fourteen by Halftime

14 to three, 49ers, one oh four left in the half, second and two at the San Francisco two. De'Von Achane went behind the right guard and lost a yard. −1.2 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −3.9 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest loss of win probability on any Dolphins run of the day. The carry before it had gone five yards, from the seven to the two. What followed was a sack wiped out by a Miami holding penalty, Achane for eight on third and 13, and a 24-yard field goal with two seconds left. 14 to six, and Miami was never that close again.

The line: 20 carries, 74 yards, no touchdown, two first downs, eight of the 20 successful, −3.9 expected points on the carries; six targets, three catches, 19 yards, one first down, −0.7 on the targets. The carries went two, seven, four, two, 17, one, eight, five, nothing, four, nothing, five, −1, eight, five, two, three, −1, six, −3. 14 before halftime for 62 yards, six after for 12. The 17 came up the middle on second and six with two 56 left in the first quarter, from the Miami 43 to the San Francisco 40. The two in the third quarter reached the San Francisco 47 for nine before a holding penalty cut it back. Three carries came on third down: four on third and one, converted; eight on third and nine, a yard short, and Malik Willis converted the fourth down himself; and the eight on third and 13. Four carries inside the 20 gained nothing, five, −1 eight, on a day Miami ran 12 red-zone plays without a touchdown. The catches were six on third and 13, seven on third and five, converted, and six on second and 10. The first snap of the game was a deep middle throw to him, 17 yards in the air, incomplete.

The split: Achane 20 designed runs, Ollie Gordon three, Jaylen Wright two, one each for Willis and Malik Washington. Six targets led the team, one more than Washington, on 23 Willis throws. 19 Miami designed runs came before halftime and nine after, one of the nine a fumbled punt snap, against 15 pass plays and 12.

Back in June the preview called Achane a lean, underpriced — the fifth-ranked back a year ago at 5.7 yards a carry, with a receiving role as insurance — and said the things to watch were the offense under Willis and the carry share. Week 1 was 11 of 13 designed runs, 36 yards, no carry in the fourth quarter of a 14-point loss, and the episode said the game script the preview feared had arrived. Sunday ran against that read on volume: Miami trailed from the four-minute mark of the first quarter, lost by 22, and he still carried 20 times, 14 of them while the margin was 11 or less. The efficiency is the open half. Two games, 31 carries, a hundred 10 yards, about three and a half a carry, no touchdowns, on an offense with 26 points. Two games settle little. Miami is home to the Chiefs on Sunday the 20-seventh.

_Data via nflverse._