De'Von Achane
Dolphins · RBPPR ADP #15
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Show notes & transcript▾
De'Von Achane finished as the number five running back in fantasy last season. He's the ninth back off the board this summer. That gap — RB5 production at an RB9 price — is the kind of thing our system is built to flag, and there isn't a single red pattern in the way. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The season was a dual-threat clinic on a bad team. Two hundred thirty-eight carries at five-point-seven a pop — elite efficiency — plus sixty-seven catches, for eighteen hundred thirty-eight yards from scrimmage. Twenty point two points a game, RB5, on a seven-and-ten Dolphins offense that finished below water in EPA. And the efficiency is real, not a small-sample mirage: plus two hundred forty-two rushing yards over expected, fifth among qualified backs, and he did it facing a stacked box on nearly a quarter of his runs. The signature: Week 10 against Buffalo, a fifty-nine-yard touchdown straight up the gut to ice the game, part of a forty-point fantasy day. Speed kills, and his floor was elite too — he cleared sixteen points in fifteen of sixteen games.
The arc is short and rising: three years in, this was the cleanest, highest version yet, and crucially it wasn't a one-off — he posted seventeen-six a game the year before. Back-to-back top-end seasons. No spike to fear.
What repeats: the volume is his, the receiving role — sixty-seven catches — is the stickiest insurance a back can carry, and the touchdown share, at twenty-two percent, sits clean below the fade line, so there's no luck to surrender. Nothing in the pattern library fires against him. That's the case in one sentence: a top-five finish, a top-five profile, no red flags, priced ninth.
So why a lean and not a full CALL? Honesty about our own method: we have no licensed stickiness pattern for running-back production the way we do for receiver and tight-end targets — so "he'll repeat" is a strong inference, not a proven base rate. And the situation adds real fog, per the reports: Miami is in a regime change, cleaning house, with the quarterback spot genuinely unsettled this offseason. A back this dependent on efficiency wants a functional offense around him, and Miami's is a question mark. The flip side, also reported: the Dolphins told suitors Achane is not on the trading block — the role is safe even as everything around it churns.
The price: pick fifteen, RB9. Verdict: LEAN underpriced — the production says top five, nothing says fade, and the gap to RB9 is free money. The counter, out loud: the new coaching staff and quarterback uncertainty could sink the offense's efficiency, and a speed-based back behind bad blocking is the profile most exposed to that. But you're buying a top-five finisher at a discount the data can't justify. Take the edge.
September watch: the quarterback situation and the offense's tempo — Achane's ceiling is tied to game scripts where Miami can stay on schedule; and the carry share, which at this efficiency is the whole ballgame. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
Show notes
De'Von Achane finished 2025 as the number 5 running back in total points per reception scoring AND the number 5 running back on a per-game basis — top-five by volume and rate, which almost never happens unless a guy is doing everything for his offense. That's exactly what Achane was for Miami. On a 7-and-10 team that missed the playoffs, with Tua Tagovailoa posting one of the lower adjusted net yards per attempt marks among qualified starters, Achane was the engine — a true bell-cow doing damage on the ground and catching 67 balls out of the backfield across 16 games. The Dolphins offense was below water in expected points added. Achane personally was a plus.
Now let's dig into the numbers. Start with the workload: 238 carries, 85 targets, a 19 percent target share — a dual-threat usage profile almost no back in football matched. The efficiency is where it gets loud. Achane averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and his rushing yards over expected came in at plus 242 on the season — plus 1.0 per attempt, fifth among qualified runners. He did that while seeing a stacked box on 23 percent of his carries. Defenses knew he was coming. Couldn't stop him. He averaged 20.2 points per reception per game, and the consistency was genuinely elite for a running back — his floor across those sixteen games was 12.8 points, and he cleared 16 points in fifteen of sixteen outings. The ceiling games — 40.5 against Buffalo in Week 10, 31.0 against the Chargers — were the cherries on top, but the story is the floor. This was not boom-or-bust. This was a steady, weekly twenty-burger with upside.
The defining image is that Week 10 win over Buffalo. Second and 7, Dolphins up 16 to 6, fourth quarter — Achane rips off a 59-yard touchdown clean through the middle of the defense to put the Bills away. That play captures the season: explosive, decisive, finishing drives for an offense that otherwise couldn't finish much. Eight rushing touchdowns, four more through the air, and a top-five fantasy finish from the only consistently positive thing his offense produced.
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