Drake Maye — Week 1: Three Picks and Forty-Seven Yards on the Ground
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Thursday, Sep 10
Maye threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter of a game New England led ten to three at the start of it — the last from the Seattle sixteen with twenty-six seconds left — and finished twenty-three of thirty-three for a hundred seventy-eight yards, one touchdown, three sacks. His seven runs for forty-seven yards were worth plus seven point three expected points; his thirty-six pass plays were worth minus four point six. Four throws of twenty or more air yards, none complete, two intercepted.
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Drake Maye's night ends where the game did: third and five at the Seattle 16, 26 seconds left, down 13 to 10, a throw deep right for Mack Hollins in the end zone that Josh Jobe intercepted. It was the third interception of the fourth quarter. The first, on the second play of the quarter, was a deep ball left for Romeo Doubs from the Seattle 45 that Nehemiah Pritchett picked off at the three with New England up 10 to three; Seattle scored on the fifth play of the next drive. The second was third and 14 from his own 22, deep middle for DeMario Douglas, Julian Love at the New England 47; Seattle kicked the go-ahead field goal off it. Through three quarters New England led and Maye had thrown no interceptions. In the fourth he threw three.
The line: 23 completions on 33 throws, a hundred 78 yards, one touchdown — two yards to Eli Raridon on first and goal in the second quarter — three interceptions, three sacks, all three sacks in the fourth quarter. His 36 pass plays were worth −4.6 expected points added, which is what plays are worth given down, distance and field position, and negative means the offense lost ground by throwing. Through three quarters the passing game was +4.6 on 22 pass plays; in the fourth it was −9.3 on 14. The deep ball did not work at all: four throws that traveled 20 or more yards in the air, no completions, two of them intercepted.
And then the other Drake Maye. He ran seven times for 47 yards, six scrambles and one designed carry, and those seven plays were worth +7.3 expected points — more than the passing game gave back. Two of them kept the final drive alive: a five-yard scramble on fourth and two with three 49 left, and a six-yard scramble on third and one with 44 seconds left that reached the Seattle 21. He also converted fourth and nine on that drive with an 11-yard throw to Hollins. 15 plays from his own 27 to the 16, and the drive worked until the last throw. On third down overall his throws converted four of 12.
Back in June the case for Maye was that his accuracy is a skill — he led the league in completion percentage over expected last season, +9.0 on Next Gen Stats' numbers — and the question was whether it survived a rebuilt receiver room. The completion-over-expectation figure this show uses comes from Next Gen Stats and is not in the feed a game-night episode reads, so that measurement waits. What the feed says is that the room was rebuilt and then rebuilt again mid-game: A.J. Brown left with an ankle injury early in the third quarter, per Mike Moraitis at The Sporting News, and every interception came after that. New England's passing game was +3.5 expected points on 15 pass plays with Brown on the field and −8.1 on 21 without him. That is timing, not cause, and one game cannot separate them. The read from June was accuracy; the read from Wednesday is a quarterback whose legs won expected points and whose deep ball lost more, in a game his offense led for nearly 28 minutes of clock and did not close. New England hosts Pittsburgh next.
_Data via nflverse._
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