Drake Maye — Week 3: Three Turnovers, Six Points
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Maye completed 14 of 25 throws for 199 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, took three sacks and lost a fumble on the first of them at the Jacksonville 42 in a scoreless first quarter, the largest win-probability swing of the game. Two of his three turnovers became Jacksonville touchdowns, in a 35–6 loss to the Jaguars.
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Nothing to nothing, three 58 left in the first quarter, first and 10 at the Jacksonville 35. Drake Maye was sacked at the 42 for a loss of seven, the ball came out, and DaVon Hamilton recovered for Jacksonville at the 38. −5.8 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −17.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. No play by either team moved the win probability more all afternoon. Jacksonville went 62 yards the other way for the first touchdown of the game.
The line: 14 of 25, a hundred 99 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks and the lost fumble. His 28 pass plays, the throws plus the sacks, were worth −14.2 expected points. The three turnovers were −17.4 between them; his other 25 pass plays came out at about +3.2. The first interception came with a minute two left in the half, down 14 to three, third and two at the Jacksonville two, after Jacksonville had spent all three of its timeouts on the three snaps before: short right for Efton Chism, intercepted in the end zone by Travis Hunter, touchback. The second came with a minute three left in the third quarter, down 21 to three, first and 10 at his own 27, short left for Kyle Williams: Jarrian Jones intercepted at the 36 and returned it 31 yards before Maye pushed him out at the five. −7.1 expected points, the worst figure on any play of the game. Chris Rodriguez scored on the next snap.
Six of 13 for 88 yards before halftime, eight of 12 for a hundred 11 after, and 92 of those second-half yards came with New England down 25 or more. Eight third-down pass plays, seven throws, three completions, two conversions, both to Mack Hollins, who had eight of Maye's 24 throws that had a receiver. He ran four times for 18 yards. Tommy DeVito took over with just under eight minutes left and the Patriots down 29. New England's passing game as a whole finished at −13.9 on 34 pass plays, the lowest of the 28 teams that have played this week, on a day the Patriots outgained the Jaguars 317 yards to 315.
Back in June the preview's case for Maye was efficiency: he led the league last season in completion percentage over expected and in adjusted net yards per attempt, with 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions in 17 games. Week 1 was three interceptions, all in the fourth quarter of a loss to Seattle. Week 2 was one, in a win over Pittsburgh, with three of four deep throws caught. Sunday was two more and a lost fumble. That is six interceptions in three games against eight all of last season, one touchdown pass, and three sacks in each of the three games. Interceptions come in clumps and three games is a small sample for a rate, but the efficiency the preview was counting on has not shown up yet. New England is at the Bills on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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