Drake Maye — Week 8: 9 of 10 After Halftime

Drake Maye brought New England back from 13-3 down against the Dolphins: 16 of 20 for 199 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, sacked three times, plus the 2-yard run that put the Patriots ahead for good. Over 26 dropbacks he was worth +9.3 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.36 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +14.0.

Almost all of it came after halftime. His 14 dropbacks before the break were worth -1.2 EPA; his 12 after it were worth +10.5, and he completed 9 of 10 for 146 yards. Down 13-3 on second and 2 at the Miami 43, he went deep right to Kyle Williams for a 43-yard touchdown, ruled incomplete on the field and awarded when New England challenged. On the next drive, first and 10 at his own 43, he fumbled, recovered it himself and threw deep left to DeMario Douglas for 26. On fourth and 2 at the Miami 23, his short throw to Douglas was spotted short and moved to a first down on review. Three snaps after a false start, on third and 2 at the 2, he ran in off right tackle for 17-13 with 1:02 left in the third, +1.9 EPA and 9.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The throw that put it away came early in the fourth, one snap after Kevin Byard's interception and a 5-yard run. Up 17-13, second and 5 at the Miami 48, Maye threw deep right, and Douglas caught it 18 yards downfield and ran the last 30 for the touchdown: +4.4 EPA and 11.7 points of win probability, 24-13 after the extra point.

The rate beat his season. Through Week 7 he was at +0.26 per dropback, +64.3 EPA on 250 dropbacks, with a CPOE of +6.7, 13 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Two of his three sacks came from Chop Robinson; Joshua Uche's cost 10 yards on third and 8 in the first quarter.

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_Data via nflverse._