Drake Maye — Week 9: Three Touchdowns, Three Picks

Drake Maye gave the ball away early and often against the Packers: 21 of 38 for 299 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions, sacked four times, in a 45-27 loss at home. Over 42 dropbacks he was worth -5.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.14 per dropback.

The game's biggest swing was his first pass. Second and 9 at his own 26 on New England's second snap, he threw deep left for Mack Hollins, and Xavier McKinney intercepted at midfield and returned it 36 yards to the New England 14: -5.9 EPA and 15.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Green Bay scored two snaps later. McKinney's second came down 17-7, second and 7 at the Green Bay 44, on a short throw for Eli Raridon, -3.7 EPA. Evan Williams picked off a deep ball for Kyle Williams at the Green Bay 23 early in the second.

The touchdowns were real. Down 17-0, third and 10 at the Green Bay 30, he went deep left to Rhamondre Stevenson for the score, +4.2 EPA and 6.0 points of win probability. He found Efton Chism III from 8 before halftime and Hollins from 22 late in the third.

It was well below his season. Through Week 8 he had +52.3 passing EPA on 250 dropbacks, +0.21 per dropback, with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, of +7.3; here it was +3.1. The three interceptions matched Week 1, and he has 11 this season.

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_Data via nflverse._