Jake Ferguson — Week 1: Two Targets, and One Was From the One
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Ferguson was targeted twice and caught both for six yards: six on first and ten with 0:14 left in the half, and no gain on first and goal from the one with 1:25 left in the third quarter. Brevyn Spann-Ford also had two targets and Luke Schoonmaker one; Dallas threw 34 times, in a 28–20 loss to the Giants.
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21 to seven, Giants, one 25 left in the third quarter, first and goal at the New York one. Dak Prescott threw short right to Jake Ferguson, and Tremaine Edmunds stopped him at the one for no gain. −0.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −1.0 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Javonte Williams scored on the next snap. That was half of Ferguson's night.
The line: two targets, two catches, six yards, no first downs, −0.2 expected points on the targets. The other catch was first and 10 at the Dallas 32 with 14 seconds left in the half, six yards short right, on the possession that ended the half. One target each side of halftime; nothing on third down; nothing between the 14-second catch and the goal-line throw, a stretch in which Prescott threw eight times. Both catches were short right. Zero yards after the catch on either.
Two targets were tied for fifth on the team. Prescott threw eight times to CeeDee Lamb, six to George Pickens, five to Williams, four to Ryan Flournoy, two each to Ferguson and Brevyn Spann-Ford, one each to KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker and Jonathan Mingo, and four throws with no receiver credited. Among the tight ends it was Spann-Ford two targets, two catches, 14 yards; Ferguson two, two, six; Schoonmaker one, one, 12 — five targets and 32 yards for the room, on 34 throws. 17 pass plays each half, and Ferguson's two targets were one and one.
Back in June the preview made no call on Ferguson — the thirteenth tight end at pick one 12 after a TE8-by-total, TE13-by-rate season, with the price and the touchdown regression agreeing — and named two things to watch: the September target rate, six a game meaning the identity held, and where he sits in the red-zone pecking order behind Lamb and Pickens. Sunday was two targets against a six-a-game baseline, and the one red-zone look was from the one and went nowhere, one snap before the ball went to the running back. One game does not reset a target rate; it is the first number under the line the preview drew, and the tight-end targets went three ways. The Cowboys are home to Washington on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is two against six.
_Data via nflverse._
When Jake Ferguson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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