Jalen Hurts — Week 2: Two Picks, Then a Winning Drive

17 to 20, Titans, a minute 56 left, first and 10 at the Philadelphia 35 after a touchback. Jalen Hurts took the Eagles 65 yards in nine plays: six completions on eight throws for 61 yards, and a four-yard scramble. Twice the drive came down to third and six. From the Philadelphia 39 with a minute 48 left he went deep right to Dontayvion Wicks for 20, worth 17.1 points of win probability — win probability is the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. From the Tennessee 22 with 20 seconds left, no huddle, he went deep left to DeVonta Smith for 19, out of bounds at the three, worth 12.3. Then first and goal at the three, 14 seconds left, short middle to Darius Cooper, touchdown. +2.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 37.2 points of win probability, the largest swing on any play in the game by either team.

The second-largest swing was also his, and it went the other way. Third and eight at the Tennessee eight, six 11 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing, the fifteenth play of the opening drive: short right for Smith, intercepted by Amani Hooker two yards deep in the end zone and returned 92 yards to the Philadelphia 10. −9.2 expected points, −27.9 points of win probability, and Tennessee scored four plays later. The second interception came on third and 12 at the Tennessee 44 with six oh eight left in the fourth, tied at 17: deep left for Smith, 30 yards in the air, picked by Marcus Harris at the 14.

The line: 26 completions on 37 throws, 264 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks for 12 yards, and +8.8 expected points on 40 pass plays, a total that includes the −9.2. 14 of 17 for a hundred 41 before halftime; 12 of 20 for a hundred 23 after. The other touchdown was second and 19 at the Tennessee 22 with a minute 55 left in the half, deep right to Smith, +3.9 expected points, the largest figure on any Eagles play. Five of the eight throws the play-by-play labels deep were complete. Third down was where the game was played: 14 pass plays, 13 throws, nine completions, nine conversions and a sack, and he converted two more on the ground, four yards around right end on third and four and two yards up the middle on third and one. Philadelphia converted 11 of 18.

The running was three designed carries for five yards and two scrambles for 11, with a six-yard scramble that came back on an illegal formation penalty. One of the designed runs came inside the 10, first and goal at the Tennessee seven, and lost a yard; the interception followed two snaps later. Philadelphia's rushing touchdown was Tank Bigsby's, from the two.

Back in June the preview made no call on Hurts — the seventh quarterback off the board at pick 67, a floor built on a 30-percent rushing share and eight rushing touchdowns, with A.J. Brown's departure capping the passing — and it said to watch the rushing and goal-line volume, and the passing without Brown. Week 1 was no designed runs and three touchdown passes. Sunday was three designed runs, no rushing touchdown again, and two more through the air. Through two games that is 467 passing yards, five touchdown passes, two interceptions, and 62 rushing yards in the stat line with nothing at the goal line. Two games is early for a role that was eight touchdowns across a season, and it is the opposite shape from the one the price was built on. Philadelphia is at the Bears on Monday the 20-eighth.

_Data via nflverse._