Justin Herbert — Week 1: Fourth and Three, Sacked at the Three
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Herbert completed 17 of 27 throws for 209 yards, one touchdown and one interception, was sacked three times, and scrambled five times for 29 yards. The sack on fourth and three at the Arizona three with 2:00 left in the half cost 12 points of win probability, and the Chargers converted two of eight third downs in a 26–14 loss to the Cardinals.
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10 to seven, Cardinals, two minutes left in the second quarter, fourth and three at the Arizona three. Justin Herbert was sacked at the 13, a 10-yard loss and a turnover on downs. That was worth −3.2 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −12 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing on any Chargers pass play, and among Chargers passes and runs second only to Omarion Hampton's fumble. The possession had reached first and goal at the seven; from there Keaton Mitchell lost three, a throw fell incomplete, Herbert scrambled to the three on third and 10, and then the sack.
The line: 17 completions on 27 throws, 209 yards, one touchdown, one interception, three sacks for 22 yards, −5.6 expected points on 30 pass plays. Before halftime it was seven of nine for a hundred 18 yards on 10 pass plays; after it, 10 of 18 for 91 on 20. The touchdown was third and six at the Arizona eight with six oh seven left in the third, down 16 to seven, short right to McConkey for eight, +9.8 points of win probability, the largest gain on any Chargers play. The interception was first and 10 at the Chargers 40 with nine 50 left in the fourth, down 23 to 14, deep right for Derius Davis, picked off at the Arizona five. He also ran five times, all scrambles, for 29 yards and one first down. The other two sacks came on first and 10 in the fourth quarter, for −4 and −8.
The ball went seven times to McConkey, six each to Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris, five to David Njoku, two to Oronde Gadsden and one to Davis; no throw was without a receiver. McConkey's seven came out at +6.8 expected points; Gadsden's two were next at +0.3. 10 designed runs and 10 pass plays before halftime, six and 20 after. On third down Herbert threw six times and completed three, one for a first down — the touchdown; the Chargers converted two of eight, and both conversions were touchdowns. Three possessions ended on downs: the sack at the three, a fourth and 18 when Njoku caught 15, and a fourth and seven when Gadsden caught six.
Back in June the preview made no call on Herbert — the tenth quarterback at pick 82 after a tenth-to-eleventh finish, with 13 interceptions the number that had capped him and 54 sacks the number the whole offseason rebuild was meant to answer. Those were the two things to watch. Sunday added one interception and three sacks to the counts, and 209 yards. One game is one game, and the preview's two questions got one afternoon of the same answers they had in June. The Chargers are home to the Raiders on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
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