Justin Herbert — Week 5: Five Sacks, a Fumble at 17-17
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Oct 12
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked 5 times, the costliest a lost fumble with the score tied, in a 23-17 home loss to the Broncos.
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Justin Herbert's day against the Broncos was Muffed: 14 of 24, 121 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and 5 sacks. He was worth -15.8 expected points added (EPA) on 31 dropbacks, -0.51 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.
The defining snap came at 17-17 with 8:06 left. Second and 10 at his own 32, Zach Allen sacked him, forced the fumble, and Que Robinson recovered at the Los Angeles 23. That was -5.8 EPA and -20.6 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Denver turned it into a 20-17 lead. It followed a fourth-and-1 sneak at his own 41, up 17-10, that went nowhere: -3.9 EPA. Down 20-17 with 3:26 left, his fourth-and-6 throw for Marquez Valdes-Scantling was intercepted by Brandon Jones, and the game ended on Ja'Quan McMillian's sack at the Denver 46.
His best stretch was a third-quarter drive, down 10-3. On third and 7 at the Denver 30 he ran 23 yards to the 7 (+2.6 EPA), and two snaps later threw 7 yards to Hayden Rucci for the touchdown. He finished with 54 rushing yards on 6 carries.
This was the low point of a hard start. Weeks 1 through 4 brought -21.4 EPA on 144 dropbacks, -0.15 per dropback, with 6 interceptions and 12 sacks. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -6.6, after -4.1 across those four games.
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_Data via nflverse._
When Justin Herbert's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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