Justin Herbert — Week 6: 44 Dropbacks, -15.3 EPA

Justin Herbert could not move the Chargers through the air against the Chiefs: 22 of 37, 204 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception, 4 sacks. He was worth -15.3 expected points added (EPA) on 44 dropbacks, -0.35 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. The Chargers ran 10 red-zone plays and scored no touchdowns.

The game turned on one throw. Down 9-3 with 10:59 left in the second quarter, second and 3 at the Kansas City 42, a drive he had kept alive with a 13-yard pass to Kimani Vidal on third and 11: he threw short right for KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Jack Cochrane intercepted at the Kansas City 35 and returned it 48 yards to the Chargers 17. That was -7.9 EPA and -15.4 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Chiefs gave it back when Cam Hart intercepted Patrick Mahomes in the end zone.

His best throw came down 19-3 in the third. Third and 12 at the Chargers 42: deep left to Quentin Johnston for 57 yards to the Kansas City 1, +6.2 EPA and +7.2 points of win probability. The Chargers came away with a field goal. In the fourth, down 19-6, his 1-yard completion to Lambert-Smith on third and 1 at the Kansas City 37 ended in a fumble that Drue Tranquill recovered.

His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -9.9. Through Week 5 he had -37.2 EPA on 175 dropbacks, -0.21 per dropback, 5 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, 17 sacks and a CPOE of -4.5. He ran 5 times for 26 yards and +1.2 EPA.

Follow Justin Herbert on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._