Khalil Shakir — Week 4: Fifty-One Yards, Then a Fumble

14 to seven, Patriots, three 24 left in the second quarter, first and 10 at the Buffalo 43. Josh Allen threw deep middle to Khalil Shakir, and he was pushed out at the New England six, 51 yards. +3.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and nine points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. The drive ended with Allen's two-yard touchdown run.

Then the other side of the half. Tied at 14, 23 seconds left, first and 10 at the New England 47, Shakir caught a short ball over the middle for eight yards, and Spillane knocked it loose; Ponder recovered at the New England 36. −1.8 expected points and −9 points of win probability. On the next snap Alford intercepted Drake Maye, so Buffalo got the ball straight back.

The line: eight targets, seven catches, 82 yards, two first downs, one fumble lost, +0.5 expected points on the targets. The catches went one, four, five, seven, 51, eight and six. The seven was third and six at the New England 15 on the first snap of the second quarter, to the eight, and James Cook scored on the next play. The one miss was third and four at the Buffalo 17 late in the third quarter, followed by a punt.

The split: eight of Allen's 33 throws, the team high. Keon Coleman had seven, Josh Palmer four.

Back in June the preview's question on Shakir was whether last season rested on a repeatable target share or a quieter efficiency spike. His targets went six, six and three over the first three weeks, 15 for 94 yards. Sunday's eight were the most of his four games. Four games: 23 targets, 15 catches, a hundred 76 yards.

Follow Khalil Shakir on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._