Keon Coleman

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• 2026 PreviewJul 3, 2026

  Keon Coleman 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't

  Coleman finished as WR61 across 12 games, averaging 7 half-PPR points per game — a season built more on staying healthy enough to produce than on a commanding role in a crowded Buffalo receiver room. With DJ Moore sitting above him on the depth chart, his volume never reached the level that tends to carry forward reliably from year to year.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Keon Coleman finished last season as a top-55 receiver on a per-game basis and second on the Bills in targets — and the market has him at pick two-17, receiver 85. That looks like a buy. This episode is about the one March trade that turns the buy into a question: Buffalo went and got DJ Moore.

  The season: 12 games, 38 catches on 59 targets for 404 yards and four touchdowns. Seven-point-oh Half-PPR points a game, 50-fourth among receivers per game, 60-first in total. 17 percent of Buffalo's targets in his games, second on the team behind Khalil Shakir — a real role in a Josh Allen offense. The production is boom-and-bust by nature, a downfield profile, but the per-game line comfortably beat where he is being drafted.

  The career is two consistent seasons: seven-and-a-half a game as a rookie, seven flat in year two. Not a leap, but not a fade — a young receiver holding a WR2-ish level while the offense figured out how to use him. He is entering his third season still on his rookie deal — young enough that a leap remains on the table, if the targets were there to support one. That is the tension in this price.

  The pattern beat is a precision case. His touchdown share of fantasy value, point-two-three, clears our receiver fade line of point-two-oh-eight — but the cohort's door is top-48 production, and he ranked 50-third by that measure. Over the line, outside the door, and we do not round players into a cohort to make a fade fire. So no regression fires against him, and the identity stat does the talking instead: 59 targets, point-seven-nine sticky, says the volume is who he is. The question is whether he keeps it.

  The situation is the trade that reshapes the room. Buffalo acquired DJ Moore from Chicago in March — Moore plus a fifth for a second, per the club — reuniting him with new head coach Joe Brady, who was Moore's coordinator in Carolina. That drops Coleman from a potential number-one target to a number-three-or-four competition. Sean McDermott was fired; Brady runs the offense now with Pete Carmichael coordinating. The room is Moore, slot man Shakir on a fresh extension, Joshua Palmer, Coleman, and a rookie, with Dalton Kincaid at tight end. The front office publicly shut down trade interest in Coleman this spring — teams called — but the target tree just got a lot more crowded above him.

  The price: receiver 85 at pick two-17. The slot paid 4.6 a game; he produced seven-point-oh. Our verdict: watchlist. By last year's production he is underpriced — a full tier of value on paper — but last year's production came as Buffalo's second target-getter, and Buffalo just imported a proven number-one to sit above him. The under-price is real; so is the target cap that erases it. The caveat is the fork: if Moore's arrival is overstated and Coleman holds a big-play role in an Allen offense, 85 was a gift — and if Moore, Shakir, and Palmer squeeze him to fourth-option snaps, the discount was the market seeing the depth chart clearly.

  Watch the camp target pecking order once Moore is in the building, his September snap rate in three-receiver sets, and whether the deep role survives the new arrival. The value is in the volume; somebody has to leave him some. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.