Matthew Golden — Week 4: The Fourth-and-Two Touchdown

Nothing to nothing against the Buccaneers, 12 58 left in the first half, fourth and two at the Tampa Bay two. Jordan Love threw short right to Matthew Golden for the touchdown. +3.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 11 and a half points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Golden had already moved that drive once without a catch: on third and three at the three, a throw his way drew pass interference on Parrish and a first down at the one.

The line: seven targets, three catches, 21 yards, one touchdown, −1.7 expected points on the targets, 89 air yards; one carry, six yards around left end on the first drive. The other catches were 13 yards on first and 20 in the third quarter and six on second and seven. Among the misses, third and five at his own 31 was ruled a catch and a fumble that Tampa Bay returned, and review made it an incompletion. The last was the interception: first and 15 at the Tampa Bay 26, four 26 left, up 17 to 14: deep left, and Parrish caught it at the seven. −21 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

Seven targets tied Tucker Kraft for the team lead, ahead of five to MarShawn Lloyd and three to Christian Watson.

Back in June the preview set September targets as the test, six a game the bar. Weeks 1 through 3 were 12, six and 12. Sunday was seven, with a second touchdown in two weeks. Four games: 37 targets, 18 catches, 274 yards, two touchdowns. The targets clear the bar; on Sunday the deep ones did not land.

Follow Matthew Golden on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._