Tetairoa McMillan — Week 2: Ten Targets, a Hundred One Yards
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 21
McMillan caught 5 of 10 targets for 101 yards, with catches of 26, 27 and 28 yards that each traveled 21 or more yards in the air, and led both teams in targets and receiving yards. All three of his targets inside the Atlanta ten fell incomplete, including fourth and two from the two, in a 34–3 win over the Falcons.
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Nothing to nothing, 12 oh three left in the first quarter, second and 17 at the Atlanta 31 after two Carolina penalties. Bryce Young threw deep right to Tetairoa McMillan, 21 yards in the air, 26 yards to the Atlanta five, and a roughing-the-passer flag moved it to the two. +3.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 6.7 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. That was the second-largest gain in win probability by any pass or run in the game, behind only the touchdown that finished the same drive. The next snap, first and goal at the two, went to McMillan as well, and fell incomplete.
The line: 10 targets, five catches, a hundred one yards, no touchdown, four first downs, a hundred 32 air yards, +3.6 expected points on his targets. The catches: the 26; eight on first and 10 with 40 seconds left in the first quarter; 12 on third and five from the Carolina 25 with eight 50 left in the second, converted; 27 deep left on the very next snap, to the Atlanta 36; and 28 deep left on second and 11 with 11 43 left in the third, pushed out at the Atlanta 24 on the drive that ended in Darren Waller's 12-yard touchdown. Three of the five catches were thrown 21 or more yards downfield, and a fourth deep ball, 31 yards in the air, fell incomplete in the first quarter. Eight targets before halftime, two after.
What the line is missing is the end zone. Three targets inside the Atlanta 10, three incompletions: the first and goal at the two; third and six at the seven with six oh four left in the second, after which Carolina kicked a field goal; and fourth and two at the two with four 34 left in the third, up 27 to three, −3.4 expected points, the worst Carolina pass or run of the day by that measure. On third down he had two targets, one caught and converted.
10 targets led the Panthers, one ahead of Jalen Coker's nine, with Xavier Legette at four and Waller at three. That is 10 of Young's 36 throws, and 19 of the 36 between McMillan and Coker. A hundred one yards led every receiver in the game; Coker's 66 was next.
Back in June the preview called McMillan the year-two premium — fifteenth among wide receivers as a rookie across 17 games, priced for a second-year leap that good rookie receivers do not usually make, with the question being whether the role rested on target volume or on touchdowns and efficiency. Week 1 was eight targets, five catches, 75 yards, a fumble the Bears recovered, and −2.5 expected points. Sunday was the volume again with the yardage attached. Two games: 18 targets, 10 catches, a hundred 76 yards, no touchdowns. The volume half of the read is holding and the scoring half has not shown up, and two games settle little about either. Carolina is at the Browns on Sunday the 20-seventh.
_Data via nflverse._
When Tetairoa McMillan's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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