Trevor Lawrence — Week 8: 10 of 14, Three Touchdowns

Trevor Lawrence needed few throws against the Colts: 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns, sacked three times, plus 3 carries for 10 yards, in a 42-7 win at home. The 14 attempts were his fewest this season. Over 19 dropbacks, sacks and two scrambles included, he was worth +7.1 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: +0.37 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +10.2.

The throw that set the day came on the opening drive, which started at his own 2 after a punt. Second and 5 at the Jacksonville 22, 0-0: he went deep right to Brenton Strange, who was pushed out at the Indianapolis 32 after 46 yards, +3.4 EPA and 9.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Eight snaps later, a false start had turned third and 7 into third and 12 at the 12, and he threw short over the middle to Brian Thomas Jr. for the touchdown, +3.3 EPA.

The other two scores were a 31-yard throw down the left side to Nate Boerkircher on first and 10, four snaps after a Colts fumble, and a short pass to Bhayshul Tuten that went 25 yards with 6 seconds left in the third. The cost was a sack: up 21-0 with 1:03 left in the half, first and 10 at his own 48, Jaylahn Tuimoloau dropped him and forced a fumble the Colts returned to the Jacksonville 31, -5.4 EPA. Laiatu Latu's 15-yard sack on third and 6 ended the first drive of the third quarter.

The rate beat his season. Through Week 7 he had +54.0 EPA on 201 dropbacks, +0.27 per dropback, with a CPOE of +3.4, 14 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and 10 sacks in six games.

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_Data via nflverse._