2026 season

Atlanta Falcons 2026 Strength of Schedule: Tied for 4th-Hardest in the NFL

The Atlanta Falcons are tied for the 4th-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026: their 17 opponents average 8.79 projected wins, and 7 of them are projected winning teams, 5 of those projected for 10 wins or more.

The latest Falcons episode

Falcons 45, Saints 24 — Week 4: Seven in the Box, 7.5 a Carry

Read

What is left, through Week 5

The opponents the Falcons have left rate plus 0.046 net expected points added per play between them — offence minus what their defences allow — which is 3rd hardest of the 32 schedules that can be rated so far.

Through Week 5 · Data via nflverse · 12 of 12 remaining opponents rated

Atlanta Falcons 2026 schedule

Atlanta Falcons 2026 regular-season schedule with each opponent's projected strength and the rest days going into the game
Wk	Opponent	Opp Strength (Aug)	Kickoff ET	Rest
1	at Steelers	—	Sun 1:00p	7
2	vs Panthers	—	Sun 1:00p	7
3	at Packers	Winning	Thu 8:15p	4
4	at Saints	—	Mon 8:15p	11 (+3)
5	vs Ravens	10+ win	Sun 8:20p	6 (-1)
6	vs Bears	Winning	Sun 1:00p	7
7	vs 49ers	10+ win	Sun 1:00p	7 (+1)
8	at Buccaneers	—	Sun 1:00p	7
9	vs Bengalsneutral site	10+ win	Sun 9:30a	7
10	vs Chiefs	10+ win	Sun 1:00p	7
11	Bye week
12	at Vikings	—	Sun 1:00p	14 (+7)
13	vs Lions	10+ win	Sun 1:00p	7 (-3)
14	at Browns	—	Sun 1:00p	7
15	at Commanders	—	Sun 1:00p	7
16	vs Buccaneers	—	Sun 1:00p	7
17	vs Saints	—	Sun 1:00p	7
18	at Panthers	—	Sun 1:00p	7

Opponent strength is the opponent's 2026 market win total, bucketed: “10+ win” is a win total of 10.5 or better, “Winning” is 9.5 or better. Rest is days since that team last played, with the edge over the opponent in brackets. Kickoff times are Eastern and highlighted when the game starts at or after 8:00pm — the Falcons have 3 primetime games, 2 of them on the road. The Falcons are on bye in week 11.

Toughest stretch

Weeks 5-7: Ravens, Bears, 49ers. Three straight projected winning teams, two of them projected for 10 wins or more.

Softest stretch

Weeks 14-16: at Browns, at Commanders, Buccaneers. None of the three is a projected winning team.

Primetime: 2026 night games

The Falcons play 3 games at or after 8:00pm Eastern, 1 at home and 2 on the road — weeks 3, 4, 5. That is against a league average of 3.4, across 55 night games on the 2026 calendar.

Counts are AS SCHEDULED. Flex scheduling moves games into and out of the evening windows during the season, so an in-season count is only current as of the last time this artifact was regenerated.

Rest: where the Falcons sit

Across the 2026 season the Falcons are up 7 days of rest on their opponents across the seventeen games. 1 game comes at a rest deficit of three days or more, and 2 come with a three-day edge the other way. Rest is zero-sum across the league — every day one team is rested is a day its opponent was not — so these net out to nothing across all 32 teams.

A rest gap only turns up in the record when it is bye-sized. Across regular-season games since 1999, a team coming off at least seven more days of rest than its opponent has won 53.6 percent (645 games); at a three-to-six day edge the rested team has won 49.6 percent, which is no edge at all. Rest is a margin, not a mover.

How this is measured

Opponent strength here is this season's net expected points added per play — a team's offence minus what its defence allows, through Week 5. The betting market stops quoting win totals once games are played, so the August line below is kept as a labelled prior rather than used as the ranking.

Read the spread before the rank. Across the whole league, hardest schedule to easiest covers about 1.5 win-total points spread over seventeen games — real, but small. Every win total in the market ends in a half-win and every schedule is seventeen games, so two schedules one place apart in the table differ by about 0.06 of a projected win, which is why 24 of the 32 teams share a rank with somebody else. Strength of schedule is a tiebreaker between two teams you already rate evenly. It is not a reason to move one of them.

Falcons schedule questions

Do the Falcons have a hard schedule in 2026?

By market win totals, yes. The Falcons are tied for the 4th-hardest schedule in the league — their 17 opponents average 8.79 projected wins, against a league average of 8.50 — and 7 of those opponents are projected winning teams.

When is the Falcons bye week in 2026?

The Falcons are on bye in week 11 of the 2026 regular season.

What is the toughest stretch of the Falcons 2026 schedule?

Weeks 5 through 7, when the Falcons play Ravens, Bears, 49ers — all three projected winning teams.

How many primetime games do the Falcons have in 2026?

Three as scheduled — one at home and two on the road — counting every kickoff at or after 8:00pm Eastern. Flex scheduling can move games into and out of the evening windows.

Where the Falcons rank

Atlanta Falcons are tied for the 4th-hardest schedule of the 32. The Cardinals have the hardest at 9.32, the Lions the easiest at 7.79. All 32 schedules ranked.

Atlanta Falcons podcast and season preview · Falcons running back depth chart · All 2026 bye weeks

Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.

Free. One email a week, in season.

Ask this data a question

Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →

Use Muffed in your AI

Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.

Add to Claude · Set up in ChatGPT · How it works →