Cincinnati Bengals pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Bengals weekly

Eleven oh four left in the fourth quarter, Cincinnati up twenty-seven to twenty-four, and Pittsburgh punting on fourth and ten from its own thirty-six. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the Bengals were at sixty-seven percent, the highest they reached all afternoon. The punt went fifty-one yards, Williams muffed the catch at the Cincinnati sixteen, and Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek recovered at the fourteen. Twenty-six points of win probability on one snap, and by expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — plus five point five for the Steelers. Pittsburgh gained minus four yards from there and still tied it with a field goal. Then it took the lead with another, and with fifty-three seconds left, Cincinnati down three and at the Pittsburgh thirty-eight, Joe Burrow was sacked by Harmon, fumbled, and Pittsburgh recovered. The Bengals went from forty-five percent to three. They lost thirty to twenty-seven in Pittsburgh on a day their offense produced more expected points than Pittsburgh's did.