Cincinnati Bengals pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Bengals weekly

Fourth and ten at the Jacksonville twenty-one, fifty-six seconds left, Cincinnati down twenty-two to seventeen with no timeouts. Three snaps had carried the Bengals from their own seventeen into range: twenty-nine yards to Mitchell Tinsley, eighteen to Mike Gesicki, fifteen to Dohnte Meyers. Then three straight incompletions. On fourth down Joe Burrow threw short over the middle to Chase Brown, and Brown was brought down at the twelve. Nine yards, one short. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap took Cincinnati from about thirty percent to three, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was minus two point three. Jacksonville knelt twice. The Bengals lost twenty-two to seventeen at home on a day Burrow threw for four hundred twenty-eight yards.