Kansas City Chiefs pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Chiefs weekly

Third and one at the Miami twelve, six fifty-eight left in the second quarter, Kansas City up fourteen to seven. Kenneth Walker up the middle, no gain. Fourth and one from the same spot, Walker up the middle again, no gain, and the ball went over on downs. That snap cost the Chiefs three point six expected points — expected points added being what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — and eleven points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment. Through two weeks Kansas City's run game ranked second in the league by expected points per rush play in Week 1 and third in Week 2. On Sunday its twenty-five rush plays were worth minus six point two. The Chiefs won anyway, twenty-four to ten in Miami, because the passing game and the defense did the work. Kansas City scored on its first possession, never trailed, and is three and oh.