Regression Flags
Regression Flags — 2025 NFL rankings, updated Jul 26, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs finished 3.5 wins below what their points scored and allowed implied, the league's widest shortfall and its strongest bounce-back signal for 2026 across 32 qualifying teams. Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Pythagorean wins estimate what a team's record should have been from points scored and allowed. The gap between that and the real record is mostly luck, and luck does not repeat: teams that outran their point differential tend to fall back the following year, and teams that underran it tend to bounce. One-score record and turnover margin are the two mechanisms that usually explain the gap. The table runs from the biggest underachievers — the bounce-back candidates — down to the teams whose record most outran their play.
| # | Team | 2025 | Pyth W | Delta | 1-Score | TO Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 1-9 | -2.0 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 4-13 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 1-7 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 2-8 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 3-7 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 2-5 | -12.0 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 2-5 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 3-5 | +4.0 |
| 8 | New York Jets | 3-14 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 3-5 | -18.0 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 3-5 | -3.0 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2-5 | -7.0 |
| 11 | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 3-6 | -8.0 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 2-5 | -6.0 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 4-5 | +11.0 |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 3-5 | -3.0 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 | 7.7 | -0.2 | 4-3-1 | -10.0 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1 | 9.3 | +0.2 | 4-5-1 | 0.0 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 5-4 | -8.0 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 6-6 | +6.0 |
| 19 | Houston Texans | 12-5 | 11.5 | +0.5 | 7-5 | +16.0 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 7-10 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 4-3 | -5.0 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 5-5 | +5.0 |
| 22 | Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 11.2 | +0.8 | 5-3 | +2.0 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 8-4 | +7.0 |
| 24 | Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 13.0 | +1.0 | 6-3 | 0.0 |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 6-3 | +11.0 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 7-3 | +11.0 |
| 27 | Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 7-3 | -3.0 |
| 28 | New England Patriots | 14-3 | 12.5 | +1.5 | 7-3 | +2.0 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 6-2 | +3.0 |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | 11-6 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 7-4 | +22.0 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 10.1 | +1.9 | 5-1 | -8.0 |
| 32 | Denver Broncos | 14-3 | 11.0 | +3.0 | 11-2 | -2.0 |
New to this stat? What pythagorean win delta means.
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- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Pass Rate Over Expected
- Market vs Reality
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
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