Week 5
The Bills went from second to first at +0.21 expected points added (EPA) per play through five weeks, after +16.9 on 58 plays in a 37-34 win over the Rams. The 49ers, first a week ago, are second and 0.001 behind, down from +0.29 after -6.5 on 55 plays in Seattle. The Patriots had the week's best game per play: +26.7 on 63 plays against the Raiders, +0.42 a snap, which took them from 23rd to 11th. The Lions went from seventh to third on +21.2 over 65 plays in Arizona, and the Packers from 26th to 18th on +15.0 over 58 plays against the Bears. The Seahawks had the week's worst game per play, -25.5 on 60 plays against the 49ers, -0.43 a snap, and went from 13th to 25th. The Bears went from ninth to 12th after -23.1 on 68 plays in Green Bay, and the Chargers are still last at -0.21 after -24.6 against the Broncos. 14 of the 32 offenses are above zero, the same as a week ago, and nine of last week's top ten are still in it. Every offense has run 249 plays or more, and the Chiefs and Panthers, on bye, are fourth and eighth without a snap this week.
Week 4
The 49ers are still first at +0.29 expected points added (EPA) per play through four weeks, down from +0.36, after +7.4 on 62 plays against the Broncos. The Bills and Ravens are still second and third, both at +0.19. The Falcons had the week's best game per play on Monday night: +22.7 on 54 plays in New Orleans, +0.42 a snap, which took them from 29th to 18th at -0.02. The Panthers went from 10th to eighth on +20.3 over 70 plays against the Lions, and the Patriots from 28th to 23rd on +13.8 over 72 plays at Buffalo. The Eagles had the week's worst game per play, -16.6 on 58 plays against the Rams, -0.29 a snap, and went from 19th to 29th. The Cardinals went from 13th to 20th after -15.8 on 63 plays against the Giants, and the Chargers are last at -0.16 after -5.8 against the Seahawks. 14 of the 32 offenses are above zero, two fewer than a week ago, and all ten of last week's top ten are still in it. Every offense has run 210 plays or more, and below that intact top ten the other 22 are still sorting themselves out.
Week 3
The 49ers are first at plus 0.36 expected points added per play through three weeks, after the best single game per play so far: plus 24.0 over 49 plays against the Cardinals, plus 0.49 a snap. The Bills went from first to second at plus 0.22 after minus 1.3 on 62 plays against the Chargers. The Bengals went from 19th to ninth after plus 15.7 on 56 plays against the Steelers, and the Falcons are out of last place, 29th at minus 0.15, after Thursday against the Packers was worth plus 21.6 on 65 plays. The Buccaneers are last at minus 0.19 after minus 15.7 on 64 plays against the Vikings. The week's worst offense per play came Monday night: the Eagles managed minus 14.3 on 47 plays against the Bears, minus 0.30 a snap, and went from 12th to 19th. 16 of the 32 offenses are above zero, and nine of last week's top ten are still in it. Three games is a small sample for a rate: Cincinnati moved ten places on one Sunday, and every offense has run at least 157 plays.
Week 2
The Bills are first at plus 0.34 expected points added per play through two weeks, after a Week 2 worth plus 28.7 on 66 plays; the 49ers are second at plus 0.30 after the best single game per play any offense has had through two weeks, plus 0.46 a snap over 47 plays — Buffalo's is the bigger total, San Francisco's the better rate. The Bears, first a week ago at plus 0.41, are seventh at plus 0.14 after minus 0.13 a snap over 69 plays, and the Giants, second at plus 0.37, are 16th at plus 0.00 after Monday night against the Rams cost them 23.6 expected points on 55 plays. The Falcons are last at minus 0.40 per play after the worst game of the week, minus 31.7 on 67 plays. Sixteen of the 32 offenses are above zero, and eight of last week's top ten are still in the top ten. Team-level expected points settles faster than any player board: every offense has run at least a hundred plays, a sample even if two opponents is not.