New York Giants pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Giants weekly

Twenty-four seconds left, the Titans at first and goal on the Giants seven, New York up twelve to seven and having just called its last timeout. Cam Ward threw short left for Elic Ayomanor, and Jevon Holland intercepted it in the end zone for a touchback. The win probability model — its read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — had the Giants at fifty-one percent before the snap; that one play moved forty-six points, more than three times any other snap in the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it cost Tennessee four and a half. The Giants beat the Titans twelve to seven at home on Sunday on four Zvada field goals, led from six thirty-seven of the first quarter to the end, and by the model never dropped below that fifty-one percent.