Arizona Cardinals pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Cardinals weekly

Fourth and two at the San Francisco twenty, thirteen thirty-eight left in the game, Arizona down twenty-three to thirteen. Jacoby Brissett threw deep left for Trey McBride, the pass fell incomplete, and a nineteen-yard pass interference penalty on the 49ers put the ball at the one. Win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, moved thirteen points toward Arizona, more than on any other Cardinals snap all day. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus three point eight. Two plays later Brissett threw to Jeremiyah Love for a one-yard touchdown, and it was twenty-three to twenty. Arizona would get within two before the end. It never got ahead. The Cardinals lost thirty-six to thirty at San Francisco, never led at any point, and after the 49ers' first touchdown their chance of winning never rose above about thirty-one percent.