Arizona Cardinals pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Cardinals weekly

Fourth and four at the Giants four, eleven seconds left, Arizona down thirty to twenty-four with its last timeout just spent. A touchdown and the kick would have won it. The Cardinals had driven sixty-three yards in under two minutes to get there, the last eighteen on a pass interference flag against Banks on third and six, and then Jacoby Brissett threw three straight incompletions from the four. On fourth down he threw short left for Michael Wilson, and Banks intercepted at the two and ran ninety-eight yards the other way for a touchdown. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, Arizona was at twenty-two percent before the snap. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was minus nine and a half, the costliest snap of the game. The Cardinals lost thirty-six to twenty-four in New York.