Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10 — Week 3: Passing Carries It, the Run Stalls

Third and one at the Miami 12, six 58 left in the second quarter, Kansas City up 14 to seven. Kenneth Walker up the middle, no gain. Fourth and one from the same spot, Walker up the middle again, no gain, and the ball went over on downs. That snap cost the Chiefs 3.6 expected points — expected points added being what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — and 11 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment. Through two weeks Kansas City's run game ranked second in the league by expected points per rush play in Week 1 and third in Week 2. On Sunday its 25 rush plays were worth −6.2. The Chiefs won anyway, 24 to 10 in Miami, because the passing game and the defense did the work. Kansas City scored on its first possession, never trailed, and is three and oh.

The passing game opens on its success rate, because that is where the day was won: 15 of Kansas City's 24 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That count includes sacks, and none counted; the one sack was wiped out by a penalty. The 24 plays produced +12.9 expected points, 246 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, and by expected points per pass play that is third of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. The baseline: at the rate Kansas City passed over the first two weeks, those same 24 plays would have been worth about +3 and a half. At last season's rate, when the passing game ranked fifteenth, about +1. Miami's pass defense ranked 20-sixth last season, so the matchup helped, but this was nearly four times what the early-season rate would have produced. The first offensive snap of the game set the tone: first and 10 at the Kansas City 33, Patrick Mahomes deep middle to Travis Kelce, 48 yards to the Miami 19, +3.4 expected points and 12 points of win probability. Three plays later, on third and one from the 10, Walker went up the middle for the touchdown.

The run game opens on the comparison, because it is the reversal of the week. 25 rush plays, 88 yards, one touchdown, −6.2 expected points — the third-lowest total of the 28 teams that have played this week, ahead of only Seattle and Washington. At the rate Kansas City ran over the first two weeks, those same 25 carries would have been worth about +7. At last season's rate, when the run game ranked in the top 10, about +1. 11 of the 25 were successful plays, but 15 gained three yards or fewer, nine gained nothing or lost ground, and the failures came at the worst spots: the third-and-one and fourth-and-one stops at the 12, and in the fourth quarter, first and goal at the Miami eight, Walker to the right end for a loss of six. That drive ended in a 34-yard field goal. After halftime the Chiefs ran 13 times for 26 yards, the longest of them Walker's 15 on first and 10 from the Miami 47.

The run defense is the unit that answered last week. Miami ran 31 rush plays and only seven were successful plays — the second-lowest rushing success rate of the 28 teams that have played this week, ahead of only Washington. They were worth −6.1 expected points to the Dolphins; on defense a negative number is the good direction. It is the same 119 rushing yards this defense allowed the Colts in Week 2, on one fewer carry, but that night the runs were worth +3.8 to Indianapolis and ranked 20-seventh in the league per play. At the rate this run defense allowed over the first two weeks, these 31 would have been worth about +1 and a half; at last season's rate, when it ranked just outside the top 10, about −1. No Miami rush play gained more than 11 yards.

The pass defense leads with what it did not allow: no passing touchdowns on 36 Miami pass plays. Those plays were worth −4 expected points to the Dolphins, eleventh of the 28 teams that have played this week, and 13 of the 36 were successful plays. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks they would have been worth about −5, so this was the early-season level, not better than it. It did not record a sack, and what it gave up came in chunks: 44 yards to Bell on first and 10 from the Miami 12 midway through the second quarter, and 42 to Dulcich on the opening series of the third quarter. The first of those drives ended in the fumble below; the second reached the Kansas City 11 and ended in a field goal. Third down was the soft spot: Miami converted eight of 16 and moved the chains on a ninth by penalty.

The game turned on two snaps near the end of the first half. Miami, down 14 to seven, had gone from its own 12 to the Kansas City 31, kept alive by a defensive holding penalty on fourth and three. Second and nine, three 16 left, Malik Willis up the middle for three to the 28, ruled down. Kansas City challenged, and the call was reversed to a fumble, forced and recovered by Sneed at the 25: −3.7 expected points for Miami and 13 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The offense gave some of it back. Walker ran for 22 on the next snap, and on second and eight from the Kansas City 49, two minutes left, Mahomes threw deep middle for Rashee Rice and was intercepted at the Miami 29, returned to the 47 — 12 points of win probability the other way. Miami punted.

The fourth quarter belonged to the defense and then the passing game. Up 17 to 10 with six minutes left, the defense stopped Miami on fourth and five at the Dolphins' 48. The offense took over at the Miami 47: Rice for 34 on second and 12, an illegal-block penalty that wiped out a Kelce catch and made it second and 21, Rice for 15 to the 11, and on third and six Mahomes to Kelce for the touchdown with three oh one left. 24 to 10. Miami's next possession ended on fourth and one at its own 48, intercepted by George Karlaftis.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Kansas City went six and 11, with a passing game fifteenth by expected points per play, a run game in the top 10, a pass defense fifteenth, a run defense just outside the top 10, and a third-down defense in the bottom five. This season opened with two home wins: 31 to 10 over Denver, when the run game ranked second in the league and the defense allowed the fewest total yards of anyone that week, and 33 to 30 in overtime over the Colts, when the offense gained the most yards in the league that week while the defense allowed 30 points and ranked 20-seventh against the run. Sunday, the first road game, flipped Week 2: the run defense came back and the run game went away. Three games do not settle much, and two good weeks of running outweigh one bad afternoon. But the Chiefs are three and oh on a different mix each week, and this week it was the passing game.

Kansas City is at the Raiders next Sunday, October fourth, in Las Vegas.

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_Data via nflverse._