Falcons 23, Ravens 30 — Week 5: Three Field Goals, One Overtime Pick

Atlanta lost 30-23 to Baltimore in overtime at home on Sunday night, after leading by eight with 2:35 to play. Nick Folk's 48-yard field goal, his third of the night, made it 23-15. Tyler Huntley's touchdown throw to Devontez Walker with 44 seconds left and Derrick Henry's two-point run around left end tied it. Baltimore took the overtime kickoff and scored on Huntley's 1-yard run. Atlanta's answer lasted two snaps: a 20-yard catch by Drake London, then first and 10 at its own 48 with 2:11 left, Tua Tagovailoa threw short middle for London and Kyle Hamilton intercepted at the Baltimore 40. That snap cost 50.5 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Tagovailoa threw both overtime passes; the play-by-play logs Michael Penix Jr. as injured on a sack-fumble with 27 seconds left in regulation.

The passing game was Smashed against its own season, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much. Its 38 pass plays were worth +6.2 EPA, +0.16 a play, against -0.20 through Week 4, and 44.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. It lived on third down, where Atlanta converted 9 of 17. Up 17-15 with 11:35 left, Nate Wiggins had dropped Zachariah Branch for an 8-yard loss on first down; on third and 15 at his own 40, Penix went deep left to London for 19 yards to the Baltimore 41, +2.9 EPA and 9.2 points of win probability. Penix finished 19 of 32 for 240 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. London caught 7 of 11 targets for 118. The touchdown was a 5-yarder to Kyle Pitts on third and 5 in the second quarter, on the drive Jahan Dotson's 36-yard catch on third and 6 took to the Baltimore 6.

The charting says the throws were rougher than the total. 22 of Penix's 32 were catchable, 68.8%, against 73.3% on his 45 through Week 4, and receivers dropped 3 of them after none on his throws before. He was charted at fault for 3 sacks, 8.1% of his 37 dropbacks, after none. Baltimore sent five or more rushers on 14 of 40 dropbacks, 35%, below the 40.5% Atlanta had seen through Week 4.

The run game was Muffed, and its success rate tells it: 19.2% of 26 rush plays were successful, worth -7.5 EPA, -0.29 a play against +0.11 through Week 4. They gained 110 yards. Bijan Robinson ran 17 times for 86 and Brian Robinson 7 for 16. Baltimore crowded it more than Atlanta's first four opponents had, with six or fewer in the box on 9 of 24 designed runs, 37.5%, against 42.7% through Week 4. On first and 6 at the Baltimore 6, Bijan Robinson went around left end and Malaki Starks and Zion Young dropped him for a 3-yard loss.

The pass defense was better than its average and still gave up the tying drive. Atlanta sent five or more rushers on 17 of 38 dropbacks, 44.7%, against 23% through Week 4, and Baltimore's 36 pass plays came out at -3.6 EPA, -0.10 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a negative number is the good direction. One snap did most of it. Baltimore up 3-0 with 8:14 left in the first, second and 19 at the Baltimore 25: Huntley threw short middle to Mark Andrews for 9, Sydney Brown forced the fumble, and Jessie Bates picked it up at the Baltimore 36 and ran it back for a touchdown. That was -7.0 EPA for Baltimore and 20.1 points of win probability. Jared Ivey had a 9-yard sack the snap before, and Samson Ebukam took Huntley down for 7 on third and 4 late in the third, up 17-15. The leak was accuracy allowed: 28 of Huntley's 32 throws were catchable, 87.5%, against 62.4% through Week 4, and none was contested, after 10.1%. He went 24 of 32 for 201 yards and two touchdowns.

The run defense was Muffed by volume. Baltimore's 32 designed runs gained 206 yards; Atlanta's first four opponents gained 191 on 65. All 34 rush plays came to +6.2 EPA, +0.18 a play against -0.23 allowed through Week 4; here positive is the bad direction. Atlanta played heavier, with six or fewer in the box on 12 of 32, 37.5%, against 53.8% through Week 4. Henry ran 24 times for 102 and Justice Hill 4 times for 73. The best stand came early: second and 1 at the Atlanta 1, a direct snap to Henry, and Gervon Dexter Sr. and LaCale London dropped him for a 2-yard loss. A third-down throw fell incomplete and Baltimore kicked a field goal.

The game turned on what Atlanta did inside the 20. It ran 9 red-zone plays and scored one touchdown, while Baltimore scored three on 11 against it. 10 drives produced one touchdown, three field goals, a turnover and a turnover on downs. The turnover on downs came up 17-15 with 3:47 left in the third, fourth and 2 at the Baltimore 39: Penix's throw to Charlie Woerner was ruled a 2-yard loss and replay reversed it to incomplete, -2.8 EPA and 12.8 points of win probability. With 9:32 left, third and 1 at the Baltimore 32, Penix hit London for 15 to the 17, and the drive ended in a 34-yard field goal. The next one ended in the 48-yarder. Eight points was not enough.

The scheme leaned on the fake and away from the screen. Play-action rose to 12 of 40 dropbacks, 30%, from 21.6% through Week 4, and screens fell to 3, 7.5%, from 18.9%. Motion held near its usual rate at 48.8% of charted plays, against 51.4%. Penix left the pocket 8 times on 37 dropbacks, after 6 on 46.

Last week's question was whether play-action would stay high and whether Penix would keep his interception-worthy count, a throw a defender should have caught, at zero. The fake stayed up and stopped paying: Penix completed 5 of 9 off it for 27 yards, after 11 of 15 for 183 through Week 4, and 14 of 23 for 213 without it. He threw one interception-worthy ball in 32; Tagovailoa threw one in 3, and Hamilton caught it. The one to watch next is the run game, which went from +0.11 a play to -0.29 against heavier boxes, and whether the red zone turns field goals back into touchdowns.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._