Falcons 23, Bears 31 — Week 6: Down 31-7, Back Within Eight

Atlanta lost 31-23 at home to Chicago on Sunday, and the comeback came too late to matter. The Falcons trailed 31-7 after the first snap of the fourth quarter, and their own return game gave Chicago 10 of those points. Zachariah Branch lost a punt that Josh Blackwell recovered at the Atlanta 10 late in the first half, and D'Andre Swift scored from the 2. Branch was stripped on a kickoff return late in the third, and Cairo Santos kicked a 50-yard field goal. Two Kyle Pitts touchdowns and two two-point throws made it 31-23 with 5:46 left. Kyler Gordon's strip-sack with 3:01 left ended it.

The passing game was Muffed for three quarters, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it. Its 38 pass plays were worth -11.9 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.11 through Week 5, and only 28.9% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, and was sacked five times, three by Gordon. The first score came down 14-0 with 5:49 left in the half: a 39-yard throw deep left to Drake London set it up, and on third and 8 at the Chicago 13 Penix hit Jahan Dotson for the touchdown, +3.1 EPA and 9.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Pitts caught 5 of 7 targets for 60 yards and both late scores. London caught 4 of 10 for 62.

The run game barely got a turn. Its 12 rush plays had a 33.3% success rate and were worth -3.5 EPA, -0.29 a play against +0.05 through Week 5, for 63 yards. Bijan Robinson ran 9 times for 61, 23 of them on one second-and-1 run to the Chicago 48 in the second quarter.

The pass defense was Muffed, and the success rate allowed tells it: 57.5% of Chicago's 40 pass plays succeeded. They were worth +10.6 EPA, +0.27 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Caleb Williams completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a touchdown. Luther Burden III caught all 8 of his targets for 95, and Colston Loveland opened the scoring with a 14-yard touchdown on second and 13. The throw that hurt most came on third and 17 in the first quarter, Rome Odunze for 23 deep middle, +3.2 EPA, on the drive Swift finished. Za'Darius Smith, LaCale London, Gervon Dexter Sr. and Brandon Dorlus had a sack each.

The run defense won on a per-play basis and lost at the goal line, and EPA per play shows the first half of that: Chicago's 32 rush plays were worth -7.9 EPA, -0.25 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 5; here a negative number is good. They gained 99 yards at a 40.6% success rate. All three rushing touchdowns came from 4 yards or closer. Jared Ivey stopped Swift for no gain on second and 4 at the 4, and Swift scored on the next snap. The best moment came down 31-15 with 7:21 left: Jessie Bates forced Roschon Johnson's fumble and Harold Perkins Jr. recovered at the Atlanta 43, -5.6 EPA for Chicago, and Pitts's 5-yard touchdown followed.

The game turned on the first drive of the third quarter, down 21-7. Chicago kept handing it chances: a 28-yard pass interference penalty, then roughing the kicker on a punt, which gave Atlanta first and 10 at the Chicago 35. Gordon sacked Penix for 6, Penix found London for 12 on third and 15, and on fourth and 3 at the Chicago 28 the throw for London fell incomplete. That snap was worth -3.3 EPA and 4.9 points of win probability. Atlanta turned it over on downs three times, converted 3 of 12 third downs, and went three-and-out on 3 of 11 drives.

Last week's notebook asked whether the run game would recover from -0.29 a play, and whether the red zone would turn field goals back into touchdowns. The run game did not: -0.29 again, on 12 tries. The red zone did: three touchdowns on 10 red-zone snaps and no field goals. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that ran at -0.31 a play and took five sacks gets back toward its -0.11 average, and whether the return game holds onto the ball after Branch gave it away twice.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._