Bills, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Light Box Finally Came

Last week's notebook had Buffalo running into a box heavier than last year's, two weeks running. On Sunday the box got lighter. The Chargers showed six or fewer defenders on 17 of 31 Buffalo designed runs. That is 55 percent, tenth-highest of the 32 offenses this week, after 32 percent in Houston and 29 against Detroit. Across all of last season it was 37. Those 31 designed runs went for a hundred 69 yards, 5.5 a carry, third in the league behind Pittsburgh and Atlanta. A week ago it was 5.6, second. Last season this run game averaged 4.9 per designed run. James Cook carried 24 times for a hundred 54 and a touchdown. Here is the honest frame for it. The Chargers showed nearly the same box to the Raiders a week earlier, 60 percent light, and allowed 2.2 a carry. Same look, five and a half against Buffalo. Two straight weeks above 5.4 per designed run, once against a heavy box and once against a light one, is the strongest thing in Buffalo's charting through three games.

Josh Allen's charting is where the notebook broke. Two of his 26 throws were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. That is eight percent, the sixth-highest rate of any offense this week, and both interceptions went to Smith. The first two weeks it was one, then none, and this show had written that down as the thing that looked most like a repeat. It is three through three games now. Last season Allen put 18 in the air, about four percent of his throws, so one game moved him from well under his own rate to a week above it. 18 of the 26 were catchable, 69 percent, the middle of the league, against his 77 across last season. Only one throw was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, among the four lowest rates in the league, after four of 31 in the Detroit game. And the fake again gained less than the straight dropbacks. Eight play-action throws went five for 40 yards, five a throw. The 18 without it went 11 for a hundred 64, nine a throw. Play-action was called on nine of 31 dropbacks, 29 percent, in the top quarter of the league, down from 42 percent and third against Detroit, and still above last season's 26.

The rush picture reversed just as hard. The Chargers sent five or more pass rushers on seven of 31 dropbacks, 23 percent, in the bottom half of the league. Detroit had sent five or more on 55 percent, the second-highest share any offense faced that week; Houston on about one in six. Last season Buffalo saw it on 29. Allen was outside the pocket on five of 31 dropbacks, one of them a scramble. 16 percent, 20-second, a week after 39 percent and the highest share in the league. Last season he was outside on about a quarter of his dropbacks. Four sacks, one of them charted as his fault. So the week Allen spent the most time outside the pocket and threw no interception-worthy balls was followed by a week where he mostly stayed home and threw two. The charting does not hand you a cause, only the pairing.

Before the snap, motion came partway back down. 41 of 78 charted plays, 53 percent, ninth in the league. That is 15 points under the Detroit game, which was second, and well above the Houston game, which was 20-ninth. Last season was 49, so this is the first week of the three that lands near the offense's own prior rate.

On defense, the number of the week is what Herbert threw into it, and it is the biggest in the league. Charters marked five of Justin Herbert's 34 throws interception-worthy. 15 percent, the highest rate any defense forced this week; Jacksonville was next at 13. Across all of last season, quarterbacks facing Buffalo threw 14 of them, three percent of their throws. Week 1 forced none, Week 2 one in 38. Buffalo turned one of Sunday's five into an interception, Gardner-Johnson's at the one. And not one of the 34 was charted contested, the only defense in the league without a contested ball this week. 23 of Herbert's throws were catchable, 68 percent, nineteenth, a point above the 67 this defense allowed last season. Five or more rushers went on 11 of 38 dropbacks, 29 percent, the middle of the league, after 33 32 percent. Last season it was 25. Three weeks, all three above last year's rate, which is the one defensive line from the notebook that held. Two sacks, neither charted as Herbert's fault.

The run defense did not hold. The box was the middle setting this time, six or fewer on nine of 26 Chargers designed runs, 35 percent, nineteenth, after 13 percent in Houston, 30-first, and 72 against Detroit, third. Those 26 designed runs went for a hundred 22 yards, 4.7 a carry, the tenth-most any defense allowed this week. The first two weeks were 3.5 and 3.3, and the notebook had this unit holding runs under four yards whatever box it showed. It did not on Sunday. Still under last season's 4.9, which was a bottom-three run defense, so the honest reading is a bad week for a unit that had been better than its 2025 self, not a return to it. Omarion Hampton had 15 carries for 56 and Keaton Mitchell eight for 52.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Cook led everyone in the game with 19.4 on the hundred 54 yards and a touchdown. Allen, 17: 16 of 26 for 204, no touchdown passes, two interceptions, +8 carries for 22 two rushing scores, and one catch for one yard. DJ Moore caught six of 10 targets for 67, 9.7. Ty Johnson caught all four of his for 50, seven. Keon Coleman one of two for 37. Dalton Kincaid two of three for 38. For the Chargers, Herbert had 12.7, and Tre Harris caught six of seven for 76.

One last time on the yardstick. Every "last season" above is the 2025 Bills, a different roster, and this is the final week the show compares to it. From here the comparison becomes this team's own season.

For anyone joining now. Buffalo went 12 five last season with the league's best run game by expected points per play and a run defense in the bottom three. This season it won at Houston 36 to 31, beat Detroit 41 to 31 at home on a Thursday, and beat the Chargers 24 to 16 at home. Three and oh. Last week's notebook had four lines pointing the same way, and three broke. Allen's interception-worthy balls went from one across two games to two in 26. The light-box share, under last season's for two weeks, jumped to 55 percent, and the run game gained five and a half a carry against it. The run defense that had held designed runs under four yards gave up 4.7. What held is the pass rush: five or more rushers above last year's rate for a third straight week, and this time it sat behind the most interception-worthy passing day in the league. One new line: the run game at more than 5.4 per designed run two weeks running, against opposite boxes. Next, home against the Patriots. Watch the interception-worthy count, on both sides of the ball.

That's your Bills — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._