Bills 26, Patriots 29 — Week 4: First Loss on the Last Throw

Second and six at the Buffalo 40, one 14 left in the game, Buffalo down 29 to 26. Josh Allen threw deep left for Josh Palmer, and Woodson intercepted at the New England 19. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that throw cost Buffalo 27 points, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, −1.7. Buffalo still had all three timeouts, and two snaps later New England faced third and 10 at its own 19, but Hunter Henry caught a 12-yard ball for the first down and the Patriots ran out the clock. Patriots 29, Bills 26. Buffalo is three and one, and this is the first loss.

The passing game lands on its success rate: 35 percent of its 34 pass plays, a count that includes one sack, gained what the situation asked for. They were worth +3.7 expected points, 253 yards and one touchdown. That is +0.1 per play, against +0.3 over the first three weeks. Allen was 14 of 18 for a hundred 54 before halftime and nine of 15 for 99 after. The charting says the ball was not the problem: 25 of his 33 throws were catchable, 76 percent, tenth of the 30 charted offenses this week and above his 72 percent over the first three weeks, and receivers dropped two of them. Play-action was on seven of 35 dropbacks, 20 percent, nineteenth of the 30 charted offenses, after 32 percent over the first three weeks, and the six play-action throws went five for 72 yards. New England sent five or more pass rushers on nine of 35 dropbacks, 26 percent, under the 33 percent Buffalo had seen before.

When the passing game came alive, it was Keon Coleman, and Coleman smashed. Six catches on seven targets, a hundred 16 yards and a touchdown, 80 of the yards in the fourth quarter. Third and four at the Buffalo 42, five oh six left, down 21 to 20: Allen threw short left, Coleman turned it into 24 yards to the New England 34, +2.4 expected points and 14 points of win probability. Buffalo went no huddle, and on the next snap Allen went deep middle to Coleman for 34 yards and the touchdown, +3.5 and 15 more points. The two-point throw to Palmer fell incomplete, and the lead was five, not seven. Khalil Shakir caught seven of eight targets for 82, including a 51-yarder to the New England six in the second quarter.

The run game opens on Cook's fourth quarter. 20 Buffalo rush plays were worth +2.8 expected points, 91 yards and two touchdowns, half of them successful. That is +0.1 per play, a little under the +0.2 of the first three weeks. James Cook carried 12 times for 75 and a touchdown, and four of the carries came in the fourth quarter for 49 yards: 17 10 to open it, then 16 six to start the go-ahead drive. The charting shows a front that did not lighten much. New England showed six or fewer in the box on seven of 19 designed runs, 37 percent, nineteenth of the 30 charted offenses against a league median of 49, and close to the 40 percent Buffalo saw over the first three weeks. Those 19 designed runs gained 87 yards. 12 red-zone snaps produced two touchdowns, Cook from eight and Allen from two, and one fourth-quarter trip to the New England 20 ended in a 38-yard field goal.

The pass defense went from its best game of the season to its second-worst. 38 New England pass plays were worth +10 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. That is +0.3 per play, against +0.1 allowed over the first three weeks: 269 yards, three touchdown passes, 53 percent of the plays successful. Yet only 22 of Maye's 37 throws were charted catchable, 60 percent, the fourth-lowest of the 30 charted offenses this week, and seven were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 19 percent, against 10 percent this defense forced over the first three weeks. Buffalo sent five or more pass rushers on 16 of 42 dropbacks, 38 percent, tenth-highest of the 30 charted defenses and above its own 32. What was different was the shape of what New England ran at it: play-action on a third of dropbacks, sixth-highest of the 30, and motion on 63 percent of plays, third-highest, where Buffalo's first three opponents had run 25 42. The takeaways were real. Parker and Oliver split a strip-sack at the Buffalo 30, Gaines recovered, −5.4 expected points for New England. Rousseau had another strip-sack that Bishop returned for a touchdown, reversed on review to an incompletion. And Alford intercepted Maye with 16 seconds left in the half and returned it to the New England nine, which became a 27-yard field goal and a 17 to 14 halftime lead.

The run defense allowed 33 rush plays a hundred 45 yards, a touchdown and +2.7 expected points, +0.1 per play against about zero over the first three weeks. Most of the damage was Maye's feet. His four scrambles went for 55 yards, the longest 26 to the Buffalo one, and Rhamondre Stevenson scored from there. The backs did less: 29 designed runs gained 90 yards, with Buffalo showing six or fewer in the box on eight of them, 28 percent, a heavier front than the 35 percent of the first three weeks. The best stop: third and one late in the third quarter, Williams and Elarms-Orr dropped Stevenson for a loss of one, and New England punted.

The turning point is the four minutes after Coleman's touchdown. New England took over at its own 27 with four 21 left. Henry for 14, Romeo Doubs for 12, Efton Chism for 19, Stevenson for five, and on third and five at the Buffalo 23 with a minute 55 left Maye threw deep right to Chism for the touchdown, 19 points of win probability. Maye hit Stevenson for two. Buffalo needed a field goal to tie. Dalton Kincaid caught a seven-yarder, an illegal-contact flag added a first down, Allen scrambled for four, and then the throw to Palmer.

Last week's notebook said to watch the interception-worthy count on both sides of the ball, a throw a defender should have caught. It moved in opposite directions. Allen had two of 33 charted interception-worthy, six percent, the fifth-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week, after three in 86 over the first three weeks. That is five in a hundred 19. On the other side, not one of Maye's 37 was charted interception-worthy, after six in a hundred 10 that Buffalo's first three opponents threw, and Alford's interception came on a throw the charters did not flag. So the defense got its takeaway without the loose balls, and the offense threw more of them, and the game ended on one. The line for next week's notebook is the pass defense against a busy offense: the most motion and play-action this defense has seen this season, and its second-worst per-play figure of the four.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Coleman led Buffalo with 20.6. Allen had 18.5: 23 of 33 for 253, a touchdown pass and an interception, +5 carries for four yards and a touchdown. Cook, 15.3 on 75 rushing yards, a touchdown and two catches. Shakir, 9.7. For New England, Maye had 26.2, Doubs 20.8 on six catches and two touchdowns, and Stevenson 16.9.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._