Bills 37, Rams 34 — Week 5: Allen and Cook Run It, Bass Wins It

Buffalo beat the Rams 37-34 in overtime in Los Angeles, and it won on the ground while its pass defense gave up 383 yards. Tyler Bass's 45-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime ended it, a few snaps after Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis's 48-yard try. The Bills turned the ball over twice and took it away zero times, a margin of -2, and still never went three-and-out: 10 drives produced four touchdowns, three field goals and the two turnovers. Buffalo is 4-1.

The passing game threw little and hit big. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts its 20 pass plays at +7.3, +0.37 a play, against +0.23 through Week 4. Half were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Allen completed 12 of 19 for 210 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Ty Johnson set up two scores: a 40-yard catch on second and 9, down 7-6 in the second quarter, that reached the Rams 17 a snap before Cook's 17-yard touchdown run, and a 26-yarder on third and 5 in the third, down 14-13, that led to Keon Coleman's 7-yard touchdown for 19-14. The miss came with 37 seconds left in the half, up 13-7, when Allen threw deep right for Coleman on third and 6 and Jaylen Watson intercepted at the Los Angeles 40.

The charting says Allen took more risk than usual. Two of his 19 throws were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 10.5%, the second-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 5 of 119, 4.2%, through Week 4. Three were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 15.8% against 6.7%, and 13 were catchable, 68.4% against 73.1%. His receivers dropped none. The Rams sent five or more rushers on 11 of 28 dropbacks, 39.3%, against the 30.9% Buffalo saw through Week 4, and Allen was out of the pocket on 14 of them.

The run game carried the night, and its success rate says so: 56.8% of 37 rush plays were successful, worth +8.5 EPA, +0.23 a play against +0.17 through Week 4, for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Cook ran 25 times for 111 and two scores; Allen ran 10 times for 121 and one. The go-ahead drive turned on Allen's legs. Tied 27-27 with 2:00 left, second and 17 at the Rams 26, he scrambled right for 21 yards to the 5, +2.7 EPA and 11.7 points of win probability. Nate Landman stopped Cook for no gain on first down, and on second Cook went up the middle for 5 and the touchdown with 1:44 left, 34-27. The Rams played lighter than Buffalo's first four opponents, six or fewer in the box on 15 of 29 designed runs, 51.7%, against 39.2% through Week 4. Those designed runs gained 127 yards; the quarterback did the rest of the damage.

The pass defense was Muffed, and the EPA allowed measures it. The Rams' 55 pass plays were worth +19.4 EPA, +0.35 a play, against +0.15 allowed through Week 4; on defense, positive is the bad direction. They gained 383 yards with three touchdowns, and 54.5% were successful. Matthew Stafford completed 40 of 54 with no interceptions. Puka Nacua caught 17 of 24 targets for 138 and a touchdown, Davante Adams scored twice, and Tyler Higbee caught throws of 28 and 30 yards deep left. The charting puts it on the ball: 41 of Stafford's 54 throws were catchable, 75.9%, against 65.3% for Buffalo's opponents through Week 4, and only one was interception-worthy, 1.9%, against 4.1%. Buffalo sent five or more on 21 of 55 dropbacks, 38.2%, ninth-highest of the 30 charted defenses and above its own 33.1%. The pressure got home twice that mattered: DeWayne Carter's 6-yard sack in the second quarter, and a sack on the two-point try after Nacua's touchdown that left it 20-19.

The run defense held its own standard on 23 snaps, and the box count shows how. The Rams' rush plays were worth -0.3 EPA, -0.01 a play, against +0.04 allowed through Week 4, and only 34.8% were successful; here a negative number is good. Buffalo crowded it, six or fewer in the box on 5 of 23 designed runs, 21.7%, against 32.7% through Week 4, and those runs gained 77 yards. Kyren Williams ran 16 times for 49. Both rushing touchdowns came from the 1. Up 27-20 midway through the fourth, second and 4 at the Buffalo 4, Deone Walker dropped Williams for a 1-yard loss, though Adams scored on the next snap.

The game turned twice in overtime. Buffalo had second and 16 at its own 21 when Allen threw short middle to Khalil Shakir, who ran 57 yards to the Rams 22, 23.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the night. On the next snap Landman forced Cook's fumble and Aaron Donald recovered at the 20, -5.8 EPA. The Rams drove to the Buffalo 35 on a 21-yard catch by Nacua, stalled, and Rousseau blocked the field goal. Allen then ran for 19 and 13, and Bass kicked the winner on second down. Regulation had nearly been lost: up 34-27 with 1:39 left, the defense let the Rams drive from their own 37, and Williams scored from the 1 with 8 seconds left. Buffalo went 2 of 7 on third down and scored 4 touchdowns on 12 red-zone snaps.

The scheme traded motion for screens. Screens jumped to 6 of 28 dropbacks, 21.4%, from 6.6% through Week 4, and motion fell to 35.8% of charted plays from 53.7%, 24th of the 30 charted offenses. Play-action held near its usual rate, 7 of 28, 25%, against 28.7%; Allen went 3 of 4 for 44 off the fake and 9 of 15 for 166 without it. Run-pass options fell to 2, 3.5%, from 7.3%.

Last week's notebook asked about the pass defense against a busy offense. The Rams were busier still: play-action on 19 of 55 dropbacks, 34.5%, fourth-highest of the 30 charted offenses, and motion on 58.4%, fifth-highest, where Buffalo's first four opponents had run 27.1% and 46.9%. The answer was no. Stafford went 13 of 18 for 171 off the fake and 27 of 36 for 212 without it, and the pass defense allowed +0.35 a play against +0.15 through Week 4. The one to watch next: whether that pass defense gets back toward its early-season standard, and whether Allen's interception-worthy throws, 2 in 19 after 5 in 119, were one night's risk.

That's your Bills, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._