Panthers, Week 1 — What Repeats: Normal Box, 232 Yards Through It

The box count alone does not explain it. Chicago ran 32 designed runs against a charted box on Sunday and gained 232 yards on them. Carolina showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 19 of those 32 — 59 percent — and averaged 6.4 men up front. Across all of last season, opponents saw a light box from this defense on 53 percent of designed runs, with an average of six and a half in the box. So Carolina was a little lighter up front than usual by the share — 59 percent light against 53 — but the average box moved by less than a tenth of a defender. The Recap had the 291 yards and the six rushing touchdowns. The charting says the number of defenders in the box is not where 232 yards came from.

The pass rush is where the numbers actually changed. Carolina sent five or more rushers on 14 of Chicago's 38 dropbacks — 37 percent, the eighth-highest rate in the league this week, with the league median at 27. Last season this defense sent five or more on 26 percent of the dropbacks it faced. Count it the other way, as dropbacks with at least one charted blitzer, and it was 18 of 38, 47 percent, against 28 percent a year ago. Against that, Caleb Williams put 22 of his 29 throws in a catchable spot, 76 percent, and none of the 29 was charted as interception-worthy. His receivers dropped nothing. Five of his throws were contested, 17 percent, so he was throwing into some traffic and still giving nothing away. Across all of last season Williams was catchable on 66 percent of his throws and put 18 interception-worthy balls up on 572.

Chicago used play-action on 13 of its 38 dropbacks, 34 percent, the sixth-highest rate in the league this week — above the 22 percent opponents used against Carolina last season, and about where Chicago itself was a year ago. The fakes were not where the yards came from. Williams's 10 play-action throws produced five completions for 64 yards. His 19 throws without play-action produced 16 completions for 205.

Now Carolina's own quarterback, where the charting is more mixed than the 361 yards. Bryce Young was charted on 37 throws. 24 of them were catchable, 65 percent, and the team figure of 63 percent is 20-fourth in the league this week against a median of 71. Last season Young was catchable on 70 percent. Six of his throws were throwaways, against 27 on 481 throws last season. One throw was charted interception-worthy, 2.7 percent, about his rate from last season, 2.3. Four throws were contested, 11 percent, the same as a year ago. His receivers dropped one of the 24 catchable balls. And the yards split in a way worth hearing: eight play-action throws produced five completions for a hundred 20 yards; the other 29 produced 18 completions for 241. Chicago sent five or more on 14 of Carolina's 43 dropbacks, 33 percent, and Young was charged with no quarterback-fault sacks. Accurate less often than last year, throwing it away more, and not turning it into mistakes.

The scheme moved in one place and held still in the others. Carolina used motion on 42 of 89 charted plays, 47 percent, tied for fourteenth in the league this week and a hair above the median of 45. Across all of last season this offense used motion on 34 percent of its charted plays. Play-action did not move: nine of 43 dropbacks, 21 percent, nineteenth in the league, a shade under the median, and 22 percent last year. Screens nearly disappeared, one on 43 dropbacks against six percent a year ago, and the run-pass option went from 10 percent of snaps last season to six and a half on Sunday. One game of screen and option counts is a handful of plays; the motion figure is 42 of them.

The run game got an ordinary box and did ordinary things with it. 19 designed runs with a charted box, 91 yards. Chicago showed a light box on nine of the 19, 47 percent, fifteenth in the league this week and right on the median of 47, against 46 percent for this offense last year. The average box was six and a half, a shade lighter than last season's 6.7.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Bryce Young, 31.4: 23 of 37 for 361, three touchdowns and an interception, +2 carries for 10 and a rushing score. Jalen Coker, 29.8, on eight catches for a hundred 38 two touchdowns on nine targets. Chuba Hubbard, 22.2: 10 carries for 49 and a touchdown, three catches for 38 and another. Tetairoa McMillan, five catches for 75 on eight targets. Jonathon Brooks, four carries for 14 one catch for 48. For Chicago, Caleb Williams went 21 of 29 for 269 two touchdowns and ran 10 times for 65 two more, 37.3. D'Andre Swift ran 18 times for a hundred 24 three touchdowns, 31.9. Kyle Monangai, 10 carries for a hundred and a touchdown. Kalif Raymond caught eight of nine for 84.

A word on what these comparisons are. Through Week 3 this show measures Sunday against last season, because there is no within-season baseline yet. Last season is a different roster, a year older, and in some places a different job — the same team name attached to a different set of people. That comparison tells you what is unusual about a game. It does not tell you what is true about this team. The version of this show that compares a team to its own recent weeks starts working around Week 4, and until then we will say each time which of the two we are doing.

The thread starts here, so here is all of it. The Recap already put down the frame: an offense that finished 20-sixth in expected points per play last season and looked like something else on Sunday, and a defense that finished 20-third in expected points allowed per play, last in the league in third-down stops, and looked like exactly that. The charting adds three lines to the notebook. The motion rate jumped from a third of plays to nearly half. The defense sent five or more on 37 percent of dropbacks, against 26 across last season, and the quarterback on the other side did not put a single ball up for grabs against it. And the run defense gave up 232 yards on 32 designed runs with an average box a tenth of a defender from last year's, so the box count alone does not explain it. One game says what to watch for, not what repeats.

That's your Panthers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._