Panthers 34, Falcons 3 — Week 2: From Fifty-Nine Allowed to Three

The first snap of the game. First and 10 at the Atlanta 20, Cooper Rush scrambled around right end for nine yards, Zakee Wheatley forced the ball out, and Nick Scott recovered it at the Atlanta 35. Replay looked at it and the ruling stood. Atlanta's chance of winning went from 54 percent to 40 on that one play, 14 points of win probability, and nothing else all afternoon moved the game as much. Carolina won 34 to three in Atlanta on Sunday, led for about 56 of the 60 minutes, and never trailed. Seven days earlier this same defense gave up 59 points at home to the Bears. That is the episode.

Start with the pass defense, because the turnaround is sharpest there. Atlanta ran 35 pass plays and they were worth −25 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that is the best pass defense, per play and in total, with New England second. For the comparison: at the rate Carolina allowed passes last season, when it ranked 20-fourth, those same 35 plays would have been worth about +3.7. Last week the Bears' 31 pass plays were worth +13.9, and Carolina ranked 20-ninth of 32. On Sunday the Falcons' longest completion was 17 yards. A hundred 45 passing yards allowed, tied with the Jets for third-fewest so far this week. Three sacks, three interceptions.

The interceptions deserve their own retelling. Third and five at the Atlanta 48, nine oh seven left in the first quarter, Carolina up seven to nothing: Rush threw short middle for Bijan Robinson and Bobby Okereke picked it off at the Carolina 41. Second and six at the Carolina 38, seven 13 left in the third, up 27 to three: Rush threw short right for Kyle Pitts, Devin Lloyd caught it at the Carolina 27 and ran it 53 yards to the Atlanta 20. By expected points that was the most expensive snap of the game for either side, −8 for Atlanta. And then third and two at the Atlanta 10, three oh eight left in the third. Atlanta had changed quarterbacks, Jack Strand's first pass play of the day went short right for Jahan Dotson, and Lloyd took it at the 16 and scored. 33 to three. Add a sack and fumble that Aaron Hall recovered in the final minute and that is five takeaways. Nobody else who has played this week has forced more than three, and Carolina did not give the ball away once.

The run defense is a split verdict, and the split is worth understanding. Atlanta ran for a hundred 57 yards, and only three of the 28 teams so far this week have allowed more. But those 32 rush plays were worth −6.7 expected points, tied for ninth-best per play, because the yards came between the twenties and the stops came where it mattered. Two moments carry that number. One is the first-snap fumble, which counts as a rush play. The other is a sequence at the end of the first quarter, 10 to nothing. Third and two at the Carolina 32, Robinson over right guard for one. Fourth and one at the 31, 46 seconds left, Drake London ran left end and Lloyd dropped him for a loss of two. Atlanta never snapped the ball inside the Carolina 20. Its closest snap was at the 23. Last week the Bears ran 39 times for 291 yards and six touchdowns, worth +14.7, and Carolina's run defense ranked last of 32.

Third down tells the same story in one line. Carolina got off the field on nine of 13, tied for sixth-best so far this week. Last week it was four of 14, thirtieth in the league, and last season this defense ranked last.

The offense did what it did a week ago, which is the quieter piece of good news. 38 pass plays were worth +11.1 expected points, eighth per play of the 28 teams so far this week and sixth in total. Last week against Chicago the passing game was also eighth, of 32. At the rate this offense threw last season, when it ranked 20-fifth, those 38 plays would have been worth about −2. 287 passing yards, tied with San Francisco for fourth-most so far this week. It was built on chunks: five completions of 20 yards or more gained a hundred 61 of those yards, and the other 18 completions gained a hundred 26. The success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, was 45 percent, fourteenth so far this week. The biggest of the five came one snap after a sack. Second and 16 at the Carolina 35, 48 seconds left in the half, up 13 to three, Bryce Young went deep middle to Xavier Legette for 55 yards to the Atlanta 10. Three plays later, third and seven with 24 seconds left, Young found Darren Waller for the touchdown. The opening drive of the third quarter ended the same way, Young to Waller for 12, and along the way Carolina challenged a spot on third and 12 and won, turning an 11-yard catch by Jalen Coker into a 12-yard first down.

What kept the score from being larger was the red zone and the run game. Carolina ran 24 snaps inside the Atlanta 20 and scored three touchdowns, nineteenth of the 27 teams with a red-zone snap so far this week. Six trips: three touchdowns, two field goals, and a fourth and goal from the two that fell incomplete. Even the first touchdown needed fourth down, Young to Chuba Hubbard from the three, worth about eight points of win probability. 21 rush plays gained 72 yards and were worth −2.7 expected points, twelfth per play so far this week; 12 of the 21 gained three yards or fewer and one went for 10 or more. Nine accepted penalties did not help. Three came on the opening touchdown drive, and in the fourth quarter a hold erased a 17-yard run and an illegal shift erased an 18-yarder on the very next snap. On third down the offense was six of 14, twelfth so far this week, and two of eight when it needed seven or more.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Carolina went eight and nine last season and beat Atlanta twice, 30 to nothing and 30 to 27 in overtime. It finished 20-fourth against the pass, 20-fourth against the run, and last in third-down defense. Week 1 looked like more of the same and worse: a 59 to 37 home loss to Chicago, 560 yards allowed, the most in the league that week. Sunday was the opposite, the best defensive game anyone has played so far this week by total expected points allowed. The honest caveats: Atlanta's passing game was last in the league in Week 1 too, it used two quarterbacks, and five takeaways is not a number any defense repeats. Two games do not settle which defense this is. What two games do agree on is the passing offense, eighth both weeks, from a unit that was 20-fifth a year ago.

Carolina is at Cleveland next Sunday afternoon. Watch whether the run defense's yardage comes down to meet its results, and whether the red zone catches up to the passing game that keeps getting it there.

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_Data via nflverse._