Panthers, Week 2 — What Repeats: Sending Five, Two Weeks Running

The plan repeated. The result did not, and the charting says the difference was not where you would guess. Carolina sent five or more pass rushers on 20 of Atlanta's 39 dropbacks on Sunday — 51 percent, the fifth-highest rate of the 32 teams this week, with the league median at 33. Last week against the Bears it was 37 percent, eighth in the league. Across all of last season this defense sent five or more on 26 percent of the dropbacks it faced. Two games, both far above last year, same direction. Last week that plan met a quarterback who put nothing up for grabs. This week Atlanta's passers threw three interception-worthy balls on 32 throws, nine percent, the highest rate any defense forced of the 32 this week. And here is the part the box score cannot tell you: all three came when Carolina rushed four. On the 20 dropbacks with five or more coming, Atlanta threw 16 times, completed nine for 92 yards, put none of them up for grabs, and took two of its three sacks. On the other 19 dropbacks it threw 16 times, completed nine for 53 yards, and threw all three interceptions.

So the heavy rush did one job and the four-man rush did another. That matters for reading the turnaround, because the easy story is that sending more people made the mistakes happen. On Sunday it did not. The extra rushers produced two sacks and nine completions for 92 yards, with nothing up for grabs. The interceptions came when Carolina rushed four.

The rest of the pass defense agrees with that picture. Atlanta's throws were charted catchable on 21 of 32, 66 percent, 20-third of the 32 teams this week, against 74 percent for opponents across last season. Only two of those 32 throws were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — six percent, against 12 percent a year ago and 17 percent last week. Atlanta was not throwing into traffic. 11 of its 32 throws were not catchable at all. Cooper Rush threw all three of the interception-worthy balls on 17 throws, and one of the three was ruled an interception and reversed on review. Jack Strand threw 15 with none charted interception-worthy, and his one interception, the one returned for a touchdown, was charted neither interception-worthy nor catchable. Atlanta barely used the play fake against this defense, six of 39 dropbacks, 15 percent, tied with what Baltimore's defense faced for 20-seventh of 32, against 22 percent for opponents last season.

The run defense reversed last week's story in the box count. Carolina showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 10 of Atlanta's 28 designed runs, 36 percent, twentieth of the 32 teams this week, with the median at 44. Last week it was 19 of 32, 59 percent, and across last season 53. The average box was 6.6, against six and a half a year ago. Those 28 designed runs gained a hundred 21 yards, about 4.3 a run — eighth-most allowed in the league this week, and close to the 4.4 this defense allowed per designed run across last season. Last week it was seven and a quarter, the most in the league. Heavier fronts and ordinary yardage, one week after lighter fronts and the most yards per designed run in the league. One week of each is not a cause. It is something to count again.

On offense, the thing that has now moved twice is motion. Carolina used motion on 42 of 81 charted plays, 52 percent, eleventh of the 32 teams this week, with the median at 50. Last week it was 47 percent. Across all of last season it was 34. Two weeks, both well above last season — one of the figures on this side of the ball moving the same way twice. Play-action has barely moved: eight of 39 dropbacks, 21 percent, 20-third in the league this week, against 21 last week and 22 across last season. But it keeps paying. Bryce Young's eight play-action throws went five for 94 yards; his other 28 went 18 for a hundred 93. Last week it was eight play-action throws for a hundred 20 of his 361. Both weeks, about a fifth of his throws and a third of his yards. Screens stayed rare, two of 39 dropbacks, tied with New Orleans for 20-second.

Now the figure that is not good news, and it has also repeated. Young's throws were charted catchable on 22 of 36, 61 percent — 20-ninth of the 32 teams this week, the fourth-lowest. Last week the team figure was 63 percent, 20-fourth. Across last season he was catchable on 70 percent. Two weeks below last year, same direction. The context softens it without erasing it. Four of the 36 were throwaways, none of them catchable, and take those out and he was catchable on 22 of 32, about 69 percent, against about 74 on the same count last season. The misses were not the deep shots: five of his six throws of 20 or more air yards were catchable. And the misses cost nothing. None of his 36 throws was charted interception-worthy, one of 12 offenses with none this week. One was contested, three percent, third-lowest in the league, against 11 percent for him last season. His receivers dropped none of the 22 catchable balls, and no sack was charged to him. Atlanta sent five or more on 26 percent of Carolina's dropbacks, 20-fourth in the league and the same rounded rate this offense faced across last season.

The run game got a heavier box and did less with it. Atlanta showed six or fewer in the box on six of Carolina's 20 designed runs, 30 percent, 20-second in the league this week, against 46 percent for this offense last season. 20 designed runs, 66 yards, 3.3 a run, 20-second in the league, after 4.8 and ninth last week.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Young, 24.1: 23 of 36 for 287 three touchdowns, no interceptions. Darren Waller, 16.8, on three catches from three targets for 33 yards and two touchdowns. Chuba Hubbard, 13.4: 12 carries for 53, two catches for 11 and a score. Tetairoa McMillan, 12.6, five catches on 10 targets for a hundred one. Jalen Coker caught eight of nine for 66, and Xavier Legette two for 64. For Atlanta, Bijan Robinson ran 16 times for 72 and caught three for nine, 9.6. Rush and Strand together went 18 of 32 for a hundred 45 with three interceptions.

The usual caution, said fresh. Until Week 4 this show has no within-season baseline, so the comparisons above are to last season — a roster that has since changed, players a year older. That tells you what looks unusual. It cannot yet tell you what is true. Week 1 is one game, and here it means last week, not a season rate.

The thread, for anyone new. Carolina went eight and nine in last season's regular season, beat Atlanta twice, and lost a Wild Card game to the Rams. This season opened with a 59 to 37 home loss to the Bears and then this 34 to three win in Atlanta. What has now moved the same way twice: five or more rushers on a third to half of dropbacks against a quarter last year, motion on about half the plays against a third, and Young's catchable rate below last season's, with play-action carrying a third of his yards at a nearly unchanged rate. What reversed: the run box and the run yards, and how catchable the opposing quarterback was. Two games settle none of it. The one to watch at Cleveland on Sunday is whether Carolina keeps sending five — and whether the mistakes keep arriving when it doesn't.

That's your Panthers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._