Panthers 18, Browns 21 — Week 3: Four Field Goals, One Touchdown

Second and 15 at the Carolina 29, two 36 left in the game, Carolina up 18 to 13. Deshaun Watson threw deep right for Concepcion, and Evans intercepted it in the end zone. It did not count. Okereke was flagged for roughing the passer, 15 yards, first and 10 Cleveland at the 14. Instead of a touchback and two and a half minutes to protect a five-point lead, 17 points of win probability went to the Browns — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — on a snap that goes in the book as no play. Three snaps later, on third and 10 from the 14, Watson found Fannin for the touchdown, and the two-point pass made it 21 to 18. Carolina lost to the Browns 21 to 18 in Cleveland on Sunday. It led for about seven minutes, all of them in the fourth quarter, and after Metchie's touchdown with four 29 left the model had the Panthers at 78 percent, their high for the day.

The passing game is where this week and the first two disagree. 50 pass plays — that count includes sacks, and there were three — were worth −5.8 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. Over Weeks 1 and 2 Carolina's passing game ranked eighth and then ninth in the league by expected points per play, and at that rate those same 50 plays would have been worth about +13 and a half: a gap of more than 19 points on one unit. It ranks nineteenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week, and 38 percent of those plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The yardage tells a different story: 262 net passing yards, ninth so far this week, with one touchdown and one interception. Cleveland's pass defense ranked in the top five last season, and at that rate 50 plays would have been worth about −6; Carolina's afternoon landed right about there. The snap that worked: third and four at the Carolina 34, 13 seconds left in the third quarter, down 10 to nine, Bryce Young deep left to Tremayne for 31 yards to the Cleveland 35. 14 points of win probability, Carolina's biggest offensive snap of the game by that measure, and the drive ended in a 37-yard field goal and Carolina's first lead, 12 to 10.

The drive chart has a strange shape. 12 drives and not one three-and-out — one of seven teams so far this week without one. 360 net yards, tenth of the 28 teams that have played this week. And one touchdown. Four field goals, all by Fitzgerald, from 35, 41, 53 37 yards; three punts; the interception; and three turnovers on downs. Third down was four of 15, 27 percent, 20-fifth so far this week, and on third and seven or longer it was two of nine. The trip that cost the most came at the end of the first half. Down 10 to nothing, a 30-yard catch by Hubbard, two roughing-the-passer penalties and a defensive holding call carried Carolina to first and goal at the Cleveland four with 47 seconds left. Two incompletions, a 13-yard sack on third and goal, and a 35-yard field goal. Four pass and rush plays inside the Cleveland 20 all game, one touchdown.

Fourth down went zero for three. Fourth and three at the Cleveland 43 in a scoreless second quarter became a 10-yard sack. Fourth and one at the Carolina 40 with three 40 left in the half, down three to nothing, was incomplete to Tremble: 10 points of win probability, and Cleveland went 40 yards in seven plays for the only touchdown of the first half, on fourth and goal from the two. The third was fourth and 16 from the Carolina 16 with one 27 left, down three, eight yards short.

The run game's number is its success rate: 30 percent of 23 rush plays, tied for 20-second of the 28 teams that have played this week. 98 yards and −2.6 expected points. At the rate Carolina ran over the first two weeks, those plays would have been worth about −1, and against a Cleveland run defense that ranked in the top 10 last season, about −1 as well. On the go-ahead drive, down 13 to 12 with seven 23 left, three straight runs gained three, 11 16 yards to the Cleveland 23, and two plays later Young hit Metchie from eight yards for the touchdown: 72 yards in six plays.

The pass defense allowed 127 net passing yards, second-fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week; only Tennessee allowed fewer. By expected points it was less tidy: 33 Cleveland pass plays worth +1.1 — on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those plays would have been worth about −5 and a half; at last season's rate, when it ranked 20-fourth, about +3 and a half. Both touchdowns came from inside the 15: fourth and goal from the two with one 43 left in the first half, and the third and 10 at the end. Two sacks, and the one interception it made was the one that came back.

Third down was this defense's better half. Cleveland converted five of 15; Carolina's 10 stops, 67 percent, are tied for sixth among the 28 teams so far this week. Last season this defense ranked in the league's bottom two at getting off the field on third down. Two of the five conversions were Watson scrambles: 12 yards on third and six in the first quarter, and 21 on third and three on the final drive. The run defense held 28 Cleveland rush plays, scrambles included, to −3 and a half expected points, eighth of 28 per play. At its rate over the first two weeks — in Week 1 it ranked last in the league against Chicago — those plays would have been worth about +3. And it produced Carolina's biggest gain in win probability of the game: fourth and one at the Carolina 15, one oh five left, down 21 to 18, Judkins up the middle for a two-yard loss. 17 points of win probability.

Special teams supplied the other break: the re-kicked second-half kickoff was forced loose by Njongmeta and recovered by Incoom at the Cleveland 30: 10 points of win probability. And after the fourth-down stop, Carolina had the ball at its own 17 with one oh one left, down three, and no timeouts. 11 yards, an incompletion, a false start, 20 yards to the Carolina 42, a spike, another incompletion. On third and 10 with 16 seconds left, Young threw short left for Waller, and Hickman intercepted at the Cleveland 46.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Carolina went eight and nine, with a passing game 20-fifth by expected points per play, a run game 20-first, pass and run defenses both 20-fourth, and a third-down defense in the bottom two. Week 1 was a 59 to 37 loss at home to Chicago: the passing game ranked eighth, and the defense allowed 552 net yards, the most in any of the 92 team games this season. Week 2 was a 34 to three win at Atlanta with five takeaways. Sunday turned the pattern around. The defense followed the Atlanta game with a respectable one — fourteenth of 28 by total expected points allowed, with the third-down stops that were missing last season — and the passing game that carried Weeks 1 and 2 fell under last season's rate for the first time this year. Three games do not settle a season, and this came against a pass defense that ranked in the top five last season. But Week 1 made the defense the question, and Sunday made it the offense's finishing: 360 net yards, no three-and-outs, and one touchdown.

Carolina hosts the Lions next Sunday night, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._