Panthers, Week 3 — What Repeats: Carolina's Rush Went Back to Last Year's

The question last week's show left open was whether Carolina would keep sending five. It did not. Against the Browns, Carolina sent five or more pass rushers on nine of 38 dropbacks. That is 24 percent, twentieth of the 32 teams this week and a little under the league median. Two weeks ago against the Bears it was 37 percent. Last week in Atlanta it was 51, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Across all of last season this defense sent five or more on 26 percent of the dropbacks it faced, so Sunday was a return to about last year's number, not a new one.

What the four-man rush got was a quiet quarterback rather than a careless one. Deshaun Watson threw one interception-worthy ball in 30 throws, a first-quarter incompletion toward Concepcion, and it came with four or fewer rushing. On the nine dropbacks with five or more coming, Watson completed three of six throws, took a sack and scrambled twice. Cleveland's throws were charted catchable on 19 of 31, 61 percent, the fifth-lowest rate any defense allowed this week. And only one of the 31 was a contested ball, a receiver and a defender arriving together. Of the 32 defenses this week, only Buffalo and New Orleans contested a smaller share of the throws they faced.

On offense, the number that has moved three weeks in the same direction is where Bryce Young's throws land. Charters marked 28 of his 47 throws catchable, not counting a spike to stop the clock. That is 60 percent, one of the four lowest rates of the 32 passing games this week. It was 63 percent in Week 1 and 61 in Week 2, and across last season he was catchable on 71 percent. Three weeks, each lower than the last. Part of it is deliberate. Eight of the 47 were throwaways, one throw in six, and none of those counts as catchable. Take them out and he was catchable on 28 of 39, 72 percent, against about 75 on the same count last season. So the honest read is that he is throwing more balls away than he did a year ago, and the throws he keeps are a little less accurate than they were. None of the 47 was charted interception-worthy, the second straight week with none. The Hickman interception on the final drive was marked neither interception-worthy nor catchable.

Cleveland mostly rushed four. It sent five or more pass rushers on 11 of 50 dropbacks, 22 percent, 20-fifth in the league. On those 11 he threw 11 times, completed six for 45 yards and was not sacked. All three sacks came with four or fewer rushing, and none was charged to the quarterback.

Play-action went up and paid less. Carolina used the play fake on 26 percent of its dropbacks, twelfth in the league this week, after 21 percent in each of the first two weeks. Young's 13 play-action throws went seven for 59 yards. His other 34 went 19 for 232. In each of the first two weeks the play fake carried about a third of his passing yards; on Sunday it carried a fifth. Motion went the other way. Carolina moved someone before the snap on 36 of 90 charted plays, 40 percent, 20-third in the league, after 47 and then 52 percent in the first two weeks. Last season it was 34. The one figure on this side of the ball that had moved the same way twice moved back.

The run game saw something no other offense saw this week. Cleveland put six or fewer defenders in the box on all 23 of Carolina's designed runs, 22 of them against six, one against five. That is the only hundred-percent light-box rate in the league this week, with the median at 41, and it is the lightest front this offense has seen in its three games: 47 percent in Week 1, 30 in Week 2, 46 across last season. Carolina gained 98 yards on those 23, about 4.3 a run, fourteenth of 32. Chuba Hubbard carried 19 times for 82. Against boxes that light that is an ordinary day, and the Recap's 30-percent success rate says the same thing.

The run defense showed a heavier front than the one it faced and gave up about the same. Carolina put six or fewer in the box on 11 of Cleveland's 23 designed runs, 48 percent, thirteenth in the league, against 53 percent across last season. Those 23 gained 89 yards, 3.9 a run, close to the 4.4 this defense allowed last season. The split is the interesting part. The 11 runs against a light box gained 56 yards; the 12 against seven gained 33. Quinshon Judkins ran 18 times for 70, 11 of them into seven-man boxes for 33. Watson's 45 rushing yards all came on five scrambles, 21 of them on the third and three that set up the winning touchdown.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Young, 13.6: 26 of 48 for 291 yards, one touchdown, one interception. Hubbard, 13: 19 carries for 82 four catches for 28. Brycen Tremayne, 10.3, four catches on six targets for 83. John Metchie, 8.9, two catches for 19 and the touchdown. Darren Waller, 7.6, five catches on eight targets for 51. Tetairoa McMillan, two catches on five targets for 17, a week after a hundred and one. For Cleveland, Harold Fannin scored 20.6 on seven catches for 51 two touchdowns, Watson 20.3, and Judkins 8.9.

One last time on the yardstick: through this week the comparison is to last season, a different roster. From next week it becomes this team's own three games.

The thread, restated for anyone new. Carolina went eight and nine last season and lost a Wild Card game to the Rams. This season it lost 59 to 37 at home to the Bears, won 34 to three in Atlanta, and lost 21 to 18 in Cleveland, so it sits at one and two. Last week's notebook had three lines moving the same way, and the five-man rush was the one to watch. It broke: the five-man rush is back near last year's rate. The motion line broke too, 40 percent after two weeks near half. What held is the line nobody wanted: Young's catchable rate, below last season for a third week and lower each time, with the throwaways now a bigger part of the reason. And the run box reversed again, from the heaviest fronts of the three weeks to the lightest in the league. The Lions come to Carolina next.

That's your Panthers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._