Panthers 32, Lions 26 — Week 4: McMillan's Fourteen Catches

Fourth and 13 at the Detroit 10, one 29 left, Carolina up 32 to 26 and the Lions out of timeouts. Jared Goff threw short over the middle to Isaac TeSlaa, and TeSlaa was brought down at the Detroit 22 after 12 yards, one yard short. Bryce Young knelt twice, and Carolina had beaten the Lions 32 to 26 at home. The Panthers trailed for about 10 minutes, all of it at three to nothing in the first quarter; it was tied at 13 and at 16 at halftime, and they led the rest of the way. Two points went missing at the kicking tee: Fitzgerald's extra point hit the right upright in the second quarter and went wide right in the third.

The passing game is the story, and its number is expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. Carolina's 44 pass plays, three sacks included, were worth +20.5. At the rate this passing game played over the first three weeks, those same 44 would have been worth about +5. 52 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Young went 29 of 41 for 329 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, and 16 of his 39 throws that named a receiver went to Tetairoa McMillan: 14 catches, a hundred 92 yards, both touchdowns. The first one is the play of the game for this unit. Up seven to six, eight 52 left in the second quarter, fourth and four at the Detroit 42, Young found John Metchie over the middle for 10 and the first down. Two snaps later, second and 10 at the 32, he went deep right to McMillan, and McMillan scored from 32 yards: +3.8 expected points, the most of any Carolina snap. Carolina went two for two on fourth down, both throws, the other a nine-yarder to Darren Waller on fourth and four in the fourth quarter. The charting explains part of it. Young's throws were charted catchable on 30 of 41, 73 percent, thirteenth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 62 percent over the first three weeks, and he threw it away three times after 18 across those three games. Detroit rushed four or fewer on 38 of his 45 dropbacks.

The run game opens on yardage: a hundred 31 on 26 rush plays, two touchdowns, 46 percent successful. By expected points it came to minus point three, close to zero, against about −1 and a half at its rate over the first three weeks. Chuba Hubbard carried 20 times for a hundred 22 and both scores, and the shape was four big runs and a lot of short ones: 15, 25, 32 12 yards, 84 yards on four carries, and 38 on the other 16. He did it into crowded fronts. Detroit showed six or fewer in the box on seven of Carolina's 25 designed runs, 28 percent, 20-fourth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 61 percent across the first three games. Carolina still gained about five yards a designed run, after about four. The call sheet moved too: run-pass options on 14 of 70 snaps, 20 percent, after eight percent over the first three weeks.

The pass defense gave a lot of it back. Detroit's 53 pass plays were worth +12.3 expected points — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — and at the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks they would have been worth about −5. 412 passing yards and one touchdown, and none of Goff's throws was charted interception-worthy, so there was nothing to take away. Carolina sent five or more pass rushers on 17 of Goff's 53 dropbacks, 32 percent, fourteenth of the 30 charted defenses this week, after 37 percent across the first three games. The defense had one sack in the game. Goff's catchable rate was 67 percent, the same as this defense allowed over the first three weeks, but 10 of his throws were contested, a defender arriving with the ball, 19 percent, more than double the nine percent before, and three were dropped. The two that hurt were deep: 49 yards to Jameson Williams with 21 seconds left in the half, which set up the field goal that tied it at 16, and 57 to TeSlaa in the third.

The run defense opens on the box, because it showed less and allowed less. Carolina put six or fewer defenders in it on 10 of Detroit's 15 designed runs, 67 percent, after 48 percent across the first three games. Detroit gained 46 yards on those 15, about three a run, after about five and a third over the first three weeks. Only a third of the runs were successful, and they came to close to zero expected points, against about plus point seven at this defense's earlier rate. Jahmyr Gibbs had every one of Detroit's carries, and only four after halftime. Detroit ran 14 snaps inside the Carolina 20 and scored two touchdowns, and on third down Carolina got off the field eight times in 12.

The turning point came out of Detroit's biggest play. Down 22 to 16, seven 53 left in the third, first and 25 after an unnecessary roughness penalty, Goff hit TeSlaa deep left for 57 yards to the Carolina 12: 15 points of win probability for the Lions — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game. Then the defense held. Four yards by Gibbs, an incompletion to Gibbs, and on third and six at the eight, an incompletion to Sam LaPorta; Detroit kicked a 26-yarder, 22 to 19. A holding penalty on the kickoff put Carolina at its own 15, and the offense went 85 yards in seven plays: 16 to Waller, 21 to Brycen Tremayne, 18 to Metchie on second and nine, Hubbard 25 to the two, and Hubbard from two yards. 29 to 19. Two of Detroit's last three drives ended on downs.

What repeats. Last week's notebook asked whether Carolina would keep sending five, and the answer is partway: 32 percent, under the 37 of the first three games, with one sack to show for it. The line nobody wanted, Young's falling catchable rate, broke the right way at 73 percent. Motion stayed down at 40 percent of charted plays, 20-third of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 46 percent before. The new line is the play fake. Carolina used it on 17 of 45 dropbacks, 38 percent, second of the 30 charted offenses this week, with the median at 22, after 23 percent across the first three games. It did not carry the passing game: Young's 16 play-action throws went 13 for a hundred 16 yards, about seven a throw, and his other 25 went 16 for 213, about eight and a half. Over the first three weeks the fake had gained more per throw. That is the one for the notebook: whether the play-action share stays up, and whether it starts paying again.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. McMillan, 38.2: 14 catches on 16 targets for a hundred 92 two touchdowns. Hubbard, 25.4: 20 carries for a hundred 22 two scores, one catch for seven. Young, 21.5. Metchie, 5.2 on three catches for 37. Waller, 5.1 on three for 36. For Detroit, Goff scored 20.5 and LaPorta 18.4.

That's your Panthers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._