Panthers 25, Eagles 14 — Week 6: Hubbard's 28 Carries for 120

Carolina won 25-14 in Philadelphia, and it won on the ground and on defense. Ryan Fitzgerald's 47-yard field goal put the Panthers ahead midway through the first quarter, and they led the rest of the way. Neither team turned the ball over. Chuba Hubbard carried 28 times for 120 yards, the Eagles went three-and-out on 5 of 11 drives, and after a turnover on downs with 4:32 left Carolina kept the ball until Bryce Young knelt at the Philadelphia 4. Fitzgerald also made a 52-yarder and missed an extra point wide right.

The passing game came in under its own standard and still made the throws that moved the game. Its 41 pass plays were worth +0.12 expected points added (EPA) apiece, a measure of what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, against +0.21 through Week 5. Only 39% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Young completed 20 of 39 for 281 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, and was sacked twice. Jalen Coker caught 6 of 13 targets for 97, and Tetairoa McMillan 6 of 9 for 86. Tommy Tremble caught all 4 of his for 46 and both scores: 12 yards on first and 10 for a 10-0 lead in the second quarter, and 19 down the middle for 25-14 in the fourth, flagged for taunting after it. The largest swing of the game was McMillan's 21-yard catch on third and 15 from the Carolina 15 with 1:56 left in the half, up 10-7, 11.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run game Smashed its own season, and EPA per play measures the jump: 31 rush plays worth +4.7 EPA, +0.15 a play, against -0.05 through Week 5, with 51.6% successful, for 128 yards and a touchdown. Hubbard did nearly all of it. The run of the day came with 1:03 left in the third, Carolina up 13-7, fourth and 1 at the Philadelphia 31: Hubbard went off left tackle for 19 yards to the 12, +2.9 EPA and 6.4 points of win probability. A short field became a touchdown when he scored from a yard out on second and 1 early in the fourth, 19-7. He converted third and 1 again with 7:08 left, 5 yards to the Philadelphia 34, and a 15-yard unnecessary-roughness penalty on Cooper DeJean set up the last touchdown. The closing drive leaned on him, and Philadelphia spent all three timeouts trying to stop it.

The pass defense Smashed, and EPA allowed shows how far below its usual line it held the Eagles: 48 pass plays worth -8.6, -0.18 a play, against slightly above zero allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. Tanner McKee completed 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a touchdown and was sacked three times: Bobby Okereke on the first snap of the game for 11 yards, Devin Lloyd for 6 in the third, and Tre'von Moehrig and Jaelan Phillips together in the fourth. The last of them set up the stop that sealed it. Down 25-14 with 5:31 left, first and 10 at the Carolina 42, McKee went down for 11 yards, -1.6 EPA. A 4-yard throw and an incompletion later, it was fourth and 17 at the 49, and his deep throw for DeVonta Smith fell incomplete with Zakee Wheatley on the play, -2.2 EPA. Smith still caught 7 of 14 targets for 75 and the Eagles' passing touchdown. Philadelphia converted 6 of 15 third downs.

The run defense was rarely tested and held. Philadelphia ran 13 times for 35 yards, -0.14 EPA a play against +0.04 allowed through Week 5, again the good direction for a defense. Dameon Pierce scored from 2 yards before halftime, but Moehrig dropped him for a 3-yard loss on second and 1 late in the first.

The game turned on a drive that began at the Carolina 8 late in the third, up 13-7. A run lost a yard and a delay of game cost 4 more, and on third and 8 from the 10, Young threw over the middle to Coker for 32 yards to the 42, +3.3 EPA and 10.1 points of win probability. Hubbard's fourth-and-1 run took it to the 12, and his touchdown made it 19-7 with 13:39 left; the two-point throw to John Metchie III fell incomplete. Philadelphia answered to make it 19-14, but its next possession began with a fumbled snap and ended with an 8-yard punt, and Tremble's second touchdown restored the 11-point margin. Carolina converted 7 of 17 third downs and scored 3 touchdowns on 10 red-zone snaps.

The one to watch next: whether the run game holds anything near +0.15 a play after -0.05 through Week 5, and whether a passing game that dipped to +0.12 a play, 39% successful, gets back to its +0.21.

That's your Panthers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._