Panthers 13, Buccaneers 43 — Week 7: Down 33-6 at the Half

Carolina lost 43-13 to Tampa Bay at home on Sunday and trailed 33-6 at halftime. The Buccaneers scored on 6 of their 9 drives, and 22 of their 43 points came off Carolina mistakes: a muffed punt, a strip-sack returned for a touchdown, a blocked extra point returned for two, and two interceptions. The Panthers turned it over three times on offense and took it away none. Their nine drives produced two touchdowns, three turnovers, two turnovers on downs and two punts.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the fall. Its 36 pass plays were worth -18.0 EPA, -0.50 a play against +0.19 through Week 6, and 38.9% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Bryce Young completed 14 of 27 for 163 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked five times, three of them by Yaya Diaby. The one throw that worked came down 17-0 with 9:18 left in the half: second and 5 at midfield, Young went deep middle to Darren Waller for a 50-yard touchdown, +4.49 EPA and 7.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Zyon McCollum's interception late in the half, returned to the Carolina 32, set up the touchdown that made it 33-6, and Tykee Smith's in the third set up a field goal. Kenny Pickett played the fourth quarter and went 3 of 4 for 47, 32 of them on a deep throw to Mitchell Evans before the last touchdown.

The run game was the one unit above its standard, and EPA per play shows it: 18 rush plays worth +3.6 EPA, +0.20 a play against +0.00 through Week 6, with 44.4% successful, for 88 yards and a touchdown. The volume was never there. Chuba Hubbard, who carried 28 times in Philadelphia, ran 7 times for 33 yards, and his best run did not count: down 10-0 early in the second, his 30 yards to the Tampa Bay 19 came back on Tommy Tremble's holding penalty. Anthony Tyus III scored from 12 in the fourth, and Trevor Etienne ran 6 times for 8.

The pass defense was barely asked to play, and EPA per play allowed says the few throws hurt: Tampa Bay's 11 pass plays were worth +0.48 a play, against -0.03 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad. Baker Mayfield completed 7 of 11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. Tez Johnson caught both his targets for 33 yards: 19 deep right on third and 10 on the opening drive, then the 14-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left in the half, one snap after Chris Godwin's 9-yard score was wiped out by an illegal shift.

The run defense was Muffed, and the volume tells it first: Tampa Bay ran 47 times for 261 yards and three touchdowns. Those plays were worth +7.0 EPA, +0.15 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 6, and 55.3% succeeded. Bucky Irving carried 24 times for 106 yards and two scores, 10 of those carries for 47 yards on the 14-play opening drive. Kenny Gainwell ran 14 times for 88, and Sean Tucker's 46-yard touchdown made it 43-6 early in the fourth. The stops came in short yardage: Bobby Okereke dropped Gainwell for a 3-yard loss on third and 2 in the first, Trevis Gipson held Tucker to -1 at the 4 on the next drive, and Princely Umanmielen stopped Tucker for a 2-yard loss on fourth and 1 late in the game.

The game turned on a drive that looked like Carolina's way back. Down 10-0, after Tampa Bay recovered David Moore's muffed punt at the Carolina 18 and kicked a field goal, Hubbard's 30-yard run was called back. Two snaps later, third and 14 at the Carolina 40, Al-Quadin Muhammad sacked Young and forced a fumble, and Calijah Kancey ran it back 32 yards for the touchdown: -7.69 EPA and 10.9 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Waller's touchdown answered, but Smith blocked the extra point and McCollum recovered it for two points the other way, 19-6. Carolina reached the Tampa Bay 5 on a 14-play drive in the third and threw incomplete on fourth and 1. The offense converted 6 of 11 third downs and scored 1 touchdown on 6 red-zone snaps.

Last week's notebook asked whether the run game could hold anything near +0.15 a play, and whether Young's accuracy would get back to the level that produced +0.21 a play. The run game held, at +0.20, on 18 rush plays with the game gone by halftime. Young's accuracy did not: completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was -15.7, against +3.0 through Week 6. The one to watch next: whether the passing game gets back toward +0.19 a play, and whether an offense that lost three turnovers and a muffed punt here holds on to the ball.

That's your Panthers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._