Panthers 19, Packers 27 — Week 8: Six Sacks, One Deep Shot

Carolina lost 27-19 at Green Bay on Thursday night, its second straight loss, and fell to 3-4. The Panthers led 3-0 after Nick Hampton recovered a fumble on the opening kickoff at the Green Bay 29, and 10-6 early in the second quarter. After Bobby Okereke's fumble recovery at the Carolina 37, the Packers scored touchdowns on three of their next four possessions to lead 27-10 midway through the third. Jalen Coker's touchdown on fourth and 3 made it 27-19 with 5:45 left, and the two-point try failed. 13 drives produced two touchdowns, two field goals, two turnovers, two turnovers on downs and three three-and-outs.

The passing game stayed short and fell short, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it. Its 46 pass plays were worth -6.6 EPA, -0.14 a play against +0.09 through Week 7, and 34.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Bryce Young completed 23 of 41 for 209 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked six times by six different Packers. He threw deep once, an incompletion for Tetairoa McMillan in the third quarter, after 42 deep throws in his first six games, and his passes averaged 4.1 air yards, the distance past the line of scrimmage, against 8.8 through Week 7. McMillan drew 11 targets and Chuba Hubbard caught 7 of 8. The best throw came late: down 27-13 with 5:45 left, fourth and 3 at the Green Bay 26, Young hit Coker over the middle for a 26-yard touchdown, +4.96 EPA.

The run game got volume without value, and success rate is the fair read: 34.8% of 23 rush plays succeeded, for 82 yards and a touchdown. They were worth -2.8 EPA, -0.12 a play against +0.03 through Week 7. Hubbard carried 22 times for 81 yards. He converted fourth and 1 at the Green Bay 9 late in the first quarter, +1.75 EPA, and scored from the 1 on the first snap of the second for 10-6. His 18-yarder on third and 1 in the third set up a field goal. Down 20-10 on the first drive of the second half, his 1-yard run on fourth and 2 at midfield came up short, -2.98 EPA, and Green Bay scored on the next possession.

The pass defense gave up the big plays and never reached the quarterback. Green Bay's 41 pass plays were worth +6.9 EPA, +0.17 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 7; on defense a positive number is bad. 53.7% succeeded, and Carolina had no sacks. Jordan Love completed 30 of 41 for 288 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Christian Watson caught 8 of 10 for 113, 53 of them on a deep throw down the middle on first and 10 at the Green Bay 21 that set up Josh Jacobs's touchdown for 13-10. Tucker Kraft caught all 6 of his targets for 53 yards and the 12-yard opening touchdown on third and 8, a drive that Will Lee III's 17-yard pass interference penalty on third and 11 kept alive. Zakee Wheatley intercepted Love at the Carolina 2 to open the fourth quarter.

The run defense beat its own standard, and the yardage shows how little Green Bay found: 66 yards on 26 rush plays. Those plays were worth -3.4 EPA, -0.13 a play against +0.05 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good, and 38.5% succeeded. Jacobs ran 21 times for 39 yards and a 1-yard touchdown. It held when it had to: with Green Bay up 27-19 and 2:28 left, first and 10 at the Carolina 35, Jacobs lost 3 yards, then gained 0 and 1, and Green Bay punted for a touchback. That left Carolina 80 yards to go, 22 seconds and no timeouts.

The game turned in the last 5:23 of the first half. Down 13-10, third and 3 at the Carolina 48, Young threw short left for Coker and Ty'Ron Hopper intercepted at the Carolina 44: -4.43 EPA and 12.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Five plays later, on third and 13 at the Carolina 24, Love went deep left to Matthew Golden for a 24-yard touchdown and 20-10. Carolina converted 5 of 18 third downs and scored 1 touchdown on 9 red-zone snaps; its last real chance ended on fourth and 5 at midfield with 2:46 left, an incompletion for McMillan.

Last week's notebook asked whether the catchable rate would get back toward 64%, and whether an offense that lost three turnovers would hold on to the ball. The catchable rate waits for the charting. Ball security improved to two turnovers lost, but one was the interception that swung the game and the other came on a lateral on the final snap. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that threw deep once in 41 attempts gets back down the field, and whether the sack count comes down after 11 in two games, against 12 in Young's first five.

That's your Panthers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._