Cowboys 20, Giants 28 — Week 1: One Stop on Ten Third Downs

Two minutes left in the first half, tied seven to seven, and the Dallas defense finally got a stop. Tyrone Tracy ran left end to the Dallas 21, Quinnen Williams knocked the ball loose, and Shavon Revel recovered at the 19. That was worth 11 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the night in the Cowboys' favor. 62 seconds later Dak Prescott threw deep right on third and five from his own 36 and Jevon Holland intercepted it at the New York 45. 33 seconds after that, Jaxson Dart hit Isaiah Likely for a 15-yard touchdown. 14 to seven at the half. Dallas lost 28 to 20 at MetLife Stadium, never led, and by the win probability model peaked at a 45 percent chance of winning and never got past it.

The defense is where this starts, because it was the worst unit on the field. The Giants produced +0.71 expected points added on every pass play they ran against Dallas. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a big positive number is the bad direction — those are points the offense gained by running the play. Only one defense of the 30 that had played by Sunday night was worse against the pass, and that was Cleveland. For the comparison: at the rate Dallas allowed last season, which was already 30-first in the league, 31 Giants pass plays would have been worth about seven expected points. They were worth 22. New York converted nine of 10 third downs, so the Dallas defense stopped one, and no team this week stopped fewer. 12 Giants snaps inside the Dallas 20 produced four touchdowns. Against the run it was a hundred 70 yards on 34 rush plays — not the problem, but not a strength either.

The passing offense was better than the box score says. Dallas produced +0.3 expected points per pass play, seventh of 30 this week, on 34 pass plays, a hundred 75 yards and two touchdowns, with no sacks taken. It converted eight of 11 third downs, the second-best rate in the league this week behind only the Giants. It also drew four defensive pass interference penalties for 69 yards, and the two biggest — 38 yards to George Pickens and 19 to Jake Ferguson — were on the first touchdown drive. The one interception is the one that cost the most, and it is described above. The problem was not efficiency. It was volume: seven possessions, 52 offensive snaps to the Giants' 65, and 244 total yards, 20-ninth of 30 this week.

The run game was barely asked. 18 rush plays, 69 yards, one touchdown. By expected points per rush play it was ninth of 30 this week, a hair ahead of the Giants, which says the carries that happened were fine. There were just not many of them.

The red zone was fine too, with one exception that was not the offense's fault. Nine snaps inside the Giants' 20 produced three touchdowns. The first of them came the hard way: second and one from the one in the second quarter, Javonte Williams over right tackle, ruled a touchdown, reversed on review to no gain, and then on third and one Prescott found CeeDee Lamb short left for the score. The second came after a third and 12 from the 17 late in the third quarter, when Prescott hit Lamb for 15 yards to the two, and Williams punched it in from the one. The third was the fourth-quarter drive: third and 10 from the Giants' 49, Prescott to Ryan Flournoy for 17, +15 for unnecessary roughness on the tackle, then first and 10 from the 17, Williams on a short left for the touchdown with five 26 left. 28 to 20. Then a taunting penalty on Williams was enforced between downs, the extra point was attempted from 48 yards, and Brandon Aubrey pushed it wide right.

That miss is why the ending was what it was. Down eight instead of seven, Dallas kicked off with five minutes and 21 seconds left and the defense needed one stop to give the offense a chance. The Giants converted a third and nine and a third and three, drew a facemask penalty, and knelt three times. Dallas never touched the ball again.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. There is no season to compare this to yet, so the comparison is last year, when Dallas went seven, nine and one. Last season this passing offense finished fifth in the league and this pass defense finished 30-first. On Sunday the passing offense was seventh and the pass defense was 20-ninth. That is the same team. One game does not settle a defense, but this one did nothing to argue with last year's number, and it came against a Giants passing game that finished in the middle of the league in 2025. One more line for the ledger: these teams split last season, Dallas winning 40 to 37 in overtime in Week 2 and losing 34 to 17 in Week 18, so the Cowboys have now lost two straight to New York.

Dallas hosts Washington next Sunday afternoon at AT&T Stadium. Watch third down on defense first, and watch how many snaps the offense gets.

That's your Cowboys — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._