Cowboys 37, Commanders 20 — Week 2: Seven Scores on Eight Drives

Second and 12 from the Dallas 27, six 16 left in the fourth quarter, and a lead that had been 17 was down to 10. A holding call on the kickoff return had started the drive at the Dallas 17, and two snaps earlier another holding call had brought back a 25-yard Javonte Williams run. Dak Prescott threw deep right to CeeDee Lamb for 35 yards, out of bounds at the Washington 38. Five plays later, second and six from the 24, Prescott went deep right to Lamb again, touchdown, three 13 left. From its own 17 to the end zone, almost six minutes off the clock, and the game was over. Dallas beat Washington 37 to 20 at home, never trailed, led for about 55 of the 60 minutes, and by the win probability model never dropped below 55 percent after the opening kickoff.

The passing game is the reason, so start there. 33 pass plays were worth +15.1 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is 15 points of value created above what those situations were already worth. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that ranks third per play, behind San Francisco and Seattle. 64 percent of those pass plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, and only San Francisco has been better so far this week. For the comparison: last season this was the fifth-ranked passing offense in the league, and at last season's rate those same 33 plays would have been worth about +5.4. Sunday was nearly three times that. 26 completions, five incompletions, four touchdowns, no interceptions that counted. The one Washington caught, in the end zone on third and 10 from the 11, was wiped out by a defensive offside. Four completions went for 20 yards or more and all four went to Lamb: 23 38 in the first quarter, then the 35 and the 24 on the last drive. Jake Ferguson caught the two touchdowns in between, 10 yards and 12 yards, both over the short middle.

The drive chart is the stat to repeat to another fan. Eight possessions, seven scores: four touchdowns, three field goals, one punt. 37 points is second so far this week, behind only Buffalo. Third down was seven of 11, third of the 28 teams that have played, behind Buffalo and San Francisco, and four for four when it needed one or two yards. That is two weeks running; last week it was eight of 11. In the red zone, 10 plays produced three touchdowns, fifth of the 27 teams that have run a red-zone play so far this week, by touchdowns per play. And when a drive stalled at the Washington 42 early in the fourth quarter, fourth and four, Brandon Aubrey made it from 60 yards. 27 to 13 became 30 to 13.

The run game did not carry any of this. 21 rush plays, 66 yards, tied with Detroit for 20-third so far this week, and 13 of the 21 gained three yards or fewer. By expected points it was worth −2.9, which is thirteenth of 28 per play, a ranking that says more about how the rest of the league has run this week than about Dallas. The first half was seven rush plays for 25 yards. The only run of 10 or more that counted was Prescott's 11-yard scramble on second and eight, down to the Washington three, which set up the first touchdown. The short-yardage work was fine: third and one twice in the fourth quarter, Prescott up the middle for three, Luepke up the middle for one. It was not a run game anyone had to fear, and the offense scored 37 anyway.

Now the defense, and the paragraph that contradicts last week. Washington ran 35 pass plays and they were worth +1.2 expected points — on defense a negative number is the good direction, so +1 is roughly break-even. That ranks fourteenth of the 28 teams so far this week. A week ago against the Giants this pass defense allowed +21.9 on 31 pass plays, 30-first of 32 in Week 1. Last season it ranked 30-first too, and at last season's rate Sunday's 35 plays would have been worth about +7.6. Washington's longest completion was 26 yards. There were no sacks that stood and no interceptions, so this was not a dominant day, it was an ordinary one, and for this unit ordinary is news.

The biggest single stand came at the end of the first half. Washington had first and goal at the one with 12 seconds left, down 17 to 10, and threw three straight incompletions. The last one, on third and goal with three seconds left, was worth 13 points of win probability to Dallas, one of the two biggest swings of the game, and the half ended there. Washington's chances went from 42 percent at the snap of first and goal to 25 at the break. The play-by-play notes that Jayden Daniels was injured on that final throw, and Marcus Mariota played quarterback for Washington after halftime.

What did not get fixed is the ground. Washington ran 32 times for a hundred 82 yards. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Detroit has allowed more rushing yards, and the +3.4 expected points those runs were worth ranks 20-fifth. The detail matters, though. Seven of the 32 were quarterback scrambles, which gained 72 yards and were worth +5 and a half expected points; the 25 designed runs gained a hundred 10 and were worth about −2. Six of the seven scrambles were Daniels before halftime, including 18 yards on third and two and 20 up the middle on second and six. After halftime Washington ran 11 times for 53. Third-down defense is the other sore spot: six stops in 14 tries, 20-fourth so far this week, and Washington converted five of six when it needed one or two yards. The lone stop in that group was the last play of the half.

The defense also made the play that broke the game open. Aubrey's 44-yard field goal made it 20 to 13 with seven 24 left in the third quarter. On Washington's next snap, first and 10 from its own 24, a short pass to the left lost six yards, Barham forced a fumble, and Winters recovered at the 18 and ran out of bounds at the 13. 13 points of win probability, the only turnover of the game by either team. Two plays later Prescott found Ferguson over the middle for 12 yards and it was 27 to 13.

Now the longer view, for anyone joining this week. Dallas went seven, nine and one last season with a passing offense that ranked fifth and a defense near the bottom of everything: 30-first against the pass, 30-first against the run, bottom two in third-down stops. Week 1 looked like the same team. A 28 to 20 loss to the Giants, a passing game that ranked seventh per play, and a defense that allowed +21.9 through the air and got one stop in 10 third downs, last of 32. Sunday kept the first half of that story and argued with the second. The passing game was better still, and the pass defense climbed to the middle of the league. The honest caveats: Washington's passing offense ranked twentieth last season, it changed quarterbacks at halftime, and the run defense and third-down defense still sit near the bottom. Two games do not settle it, and one of those two said the opposite.

Dallas faces the Ravens next Sunday. Watch whether the pass defense holds its number against Baltimore, and watch what happens when a quarterback leaves the pocket.

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_Data via nflverse._