Cowboys, Week 3 — What Repeats: Williams Answered the Notebook

Two weeks running, this show filed the Dallas run game as the problem: 20-seventh in yards per designed run against a light box, then 20-seventh against a heavy one, which pointed at the runners rather than the defenses. Sunday in Rio reversed it. 26 designed runs gained a hundred 29 yards, five a run, the sixth-best rate of the 32 offenses this week. The first two weeks were 3.4 and 2.4; across last season this offense averaged 4.6. The boxes were nothing special this time. Baltimore showed six or fewer defenders on 11 of the 26, 42 percent, fifteenth this week and sitting between Week 1's 81 and Week 2's 33. Those 11 light-box runs went for 79 yards. The 15 against seven or more went for 50.

Javonte Williams is most of the answer. 19 carries for 98 yards, and three of them went for 15 or more — 17, 22 15 — all three off left tackle, all three against a six-man box. Eight of his carries came against a light box and produced 64 yards; the other 11, against seven or more, produced 34. So the honest version is that the long runs came when Baltimore was light, though Baltimore was light less often than in either of its first two games. The footnote is the opponent: this same Baltimore run defense allowed 5.2 a designed run to the Colts in Week 1, the fifth-most in the league that week. The runs answered, and the defense across from them was one that had been run on before.

The passing game met a rush it had seen once already and got less from it. Baltimore sent five or more pass rushers on 20 of 45 dropbacks, 44 percent, the sixth-highest rate any offense faced this week. Washington did nearly the same a week ago, 47 percent. The Giants sent it on 17 percent in Week 1, and last season this offense saw it on 28. Against the five-or-more rush Dak Prescott completed 11 of 18 for 98 yards, took the sack on third and one at the Baltimore one, and scrambled once. Against four or fewer he went 14 of 22 for a hundred 78 and the touchdown. Two games of heavy rush now: against Washington's, Prescott threw a touchdown; against Baltimore's, he did not.

The accuracy streak broke with it. 27 of Prescott's 40 charted throws were catchable, 68 percent, just under the league median. The first two weeks were 79 87, both above last season's 75; this one was below it. Eight throws were contested, 20 percent, among the 10 highest this week, after six percent and 13 in the first two weeks. The one interception-worthy throw came on second and eight from the Baltimore 25, 10 30 left in the fourth, down 24 to 21: a short throw to the right for George Pickens, incomplete, with six rushers coming. Pickens was also the target on Dallas's one drop and its one throwaway. And the sack was charted as Prescott's own fault, as all three of his sacks this season have been; last season he was charged with 17.

The fake settled in the middle and did little. 11 of 45 dropbacks carried play-action, 24 percent, eighteenth this week, after 14 percent against the Giants and 36 against Washington; last season it was 27. Prescott's nine play-action throws went six completions for 39 yards, and the fumble at the Baltimore 23 came on one of them, a screen to Jake Ferguson. His 31 other throws went 19 for 237.

The defense's rush plan is now four reference points that agree. Dallas sent five or more on six of Baltimore's 22 dropbacks, 27 percent, seventeenth this week. Week 1 was 27, Week 2 26, and last season 28. It did not matter which one Lamar Jackson got. On the six, he completed five of six for 42 yards and both touchdowns. On the other 16, 10 of 14 for a hundred 44, +2 scrambles for 18. 17 of his 20 throws were catchable, 85 percent, among the four highest rates any defense allowed this week, and this defense contested just one of the 20. Last season its opponents threw catchable balls 75 percent of the time.

Against the run, the box was heavy and the yardage still came. Dallas showed six or fewer on 12 of Baltimore's 36 designed runs, 33 percent, tied for twentieth this week; last week it was 60, last season 55. The 24 heavy-box runs allowed 94 yards, about four a run. The 12 light ones allowed 80, including all four of Jackson's designed runs for 32. Overall that is 4.8 a designed run, the seventh-most allowed this week. The Recap covered the four short-yardage stops, and they are real. Around them, the heavy boxes gave up nearly four a carry the rest of the afternoon.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Prescott: 25 of 40 for 276 and a touchdown, four carries for 19, 18.9. Williams: 19 carries for 98 and a score, two catches for five, 17.3. CeeDee Lamb caught seven of eight targets for a hundred 12, 16.7. Pickens seven of 11 for 82, 11.7. KaVontae Turpin, a nine-yard touchdown run and a nine-yard catch, 8.3. Ferguson three of five for 23 and a score, 7.8. Ryan Flournoy two of eight for 22. For Baltimore, Henry ran 26 times for 89 two touchdowns, 21.4; Jackson 15 of 20 for a hundred 86 two scores +50 on the ground, 20.4; Zay Flowers five of six for 84.

One line on the yardstick. Through this week the comparison has been to last season's Cowboys, a different roster. From here on the show measures Dallas against its own season.

The thread, from the top for anyone new. Dallas went seven, nine and one last season with a top-10 passing game and a defense near the bottom against the pass, the run and on third down. This season it is one and two: a 28 to 20 loss at the Giants, a 37 to 20 win over Washington, and Sunday's 34 to 31 loss to Baltimore. Last week's notebook had four entries. Prescott's accuracy above last season broke; 68 percent is under it. The play-action drought stayed gone, at a rate close to last year's. The run game ranked 20-seventh twice and this week ranked sixth, so that entry is crossed out. And the run defense gave up yardage in both kinds of box again, which is the one that has held all three weeks. The defense's rush rate has not moved in four reference points, and Sunday it faced a quarterback who did not need it to. Dallas is at the Texans next.

That's your Cowboys — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._