Cowboys 34, Texans 30 — Week 4: Lamb's 21 Targets, Winner With :43 Left

Fourth and four at the Dallas 32, a minute 34 left, down 30 to 27. On the snap before, third and one, CeeDee Lamb had been thrown to behind the line and brought down for a loss of three. Now, out of the no-huddle, Dak Prescott threw short over the middle to Jake Ferguson for seven yards and the first down. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap moved 10 and a half points Dallas's way. Seven snaps later, second and 10 at the Houston 12 with 43 seconds left, Prescott went short over the middle to Lamb for a 12-yard touchdown, +3.4 expected points added — expected points added being what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth — and 29 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Cowboys won 34 to 30 in Houston and are two and two.

The passing game was one receiver deep, and it was enough. 21 of Prescott's 45 throws went to Lamb, 47 percent, and he caught 17 for a hundred 89 yards. Every other Cowboy combined caught 15 passes. 48 pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth +9.8 expected points, and 42 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That is below this passing game's rate over the first three weeks, which would have made those 48 plays worth about +14 and a half. The charting says the throws were good and the windows were not. 35 of the 45 were catchable, 78 percent, sixth of the 30 charted offenses this week and right where Prescott was over the first three weeks. But 15 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 33 percent, against 13 percent across Weeks 1 through 3. Two were interception-worthy, throws a defender should have caught, as many as in the first three games combined. Houston caught neither. Only one throw traveled 20 yards in the air, and it was the big one: first and 10 at the Dallas 36 in the third, down 23 to 13, deep middle to George Pickens for 53 yards to the Houston 11. +3.5.

Houston rushed Dallas far less than Dallas was used to. The Texans sent five or more pass rushers on eight of 50 dropbacks, 16 percent; across the first three weeks Dallas had seen it 37 percent of the time. Play-action held near its usual rate, 11 of 50, 22 percent, sixteenth this week, and Prescott's 10 play-action throws went six for a hundred 12 yards. Only one of the three sacks was charted as his fault.

The run game's line is three touchdowns, all Javonte Williams, from eight, one and two yards. 25 rush plays were worth plus point seven expected points, with 48 percent successful, better than the first three weeks' rate, which would have made them about −1. The yardage was thin. 23 designed runs gained 68 yards, three a run, against 3.8 before. Houston showed six or fewer defenders on eight of the 23, 35 percent, 20-first of the 30 charted offenses this week, after a light box half the time across the first three weeks. Williams carried 19 times for 62 yards. The goal line was where it paid: 13 red-zone snaps and four touchdowns. The third-quarter score took eight snaps from the Houston 11, counting two that penalties wiped out, with two Williams runs losing three yards each, a pass interference call to the one, and a defensive holding penalty on fourth and three that gave the ball back at the one before Williams went up the middle.

The pass defense was the same story it has been. 31 Houston pass plays were worth +15 expected points, about plus point five a play; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At this defense's rate over the first three weeks those plays would have cost about 12 and a half, so Sunday was worse again. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, both to Nico Collins, who caught seven of eight for a hundred 18. The opening snap was a 45-yard throw to Collins. Dallas sent five or more on nine of 33 Houston dropbacks, 27 percent, eighteenth of the 30 charted defenses, against 27 percent across the first three weeks. Houston faked a handoff on a third of its dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate this week, and Stroud went seven of 10 for a hundred 53 yards on those throws. The sack that mattered came early in the fourth, down 27 to 23: third and three at the Houston 42, an 11-yard loss, 11 points of win probability, and a punt.

The run defense had its best afternoon of the season by expected points per play. 19 Houston rush plays, −3.1 expected points, minus point two a play; on defense a negative number is the good direction. At the first three weeks' rate those 19 would have been worth about plus point two to Houston. 17 designed runs gained 50 yards, 2.9 a run. Opponents had run for 4.8 a designed run against this defense across the first three weeks. And Dallas did it without loading up: six or fewer in the box on three of the 17, 18 percent, against 39 before. David Montgomery's 10 carries went for 24 yards with no first down.

The turning point was the 90 seconds after Houston went ahead. Woody Marks scored with two 26 left, 30 to 27, set up by a 21-yard catch-and-lateral on third and 14. Dallas took over at its own 26, and the drive went incomplete, nine yards, −3 on third and one, then the fourth-down throw to Ferguson. After an incompletion, Lamb caught 15 to the Houston 46, and Houston spent all three timeouts across the next three snaps: four yards to Williams, eight to Lamb, then 22 to Pickens at the 12. The touchdown came two snaps later. Houston's last drive reached the Dallas 48 and ended on an incompletion with nine seconds left.

Last week's notebook kept one entry that had held all three weeks: the run defense giving up yardage whatever the box. Sunday crossed it out, for one week at least, against the run game that came in having averaged 3.1 a designed run. The other line, the rush rate, has now not moved in four games. The question for next week is the passing game's shape. 47 percent to one receiver worked against a defense that rushed four or fewer on most dropbacks; whether Prescott's contested rate comes back down from a third of his throws is the line in the notebook.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Lamb, 17 catches for a hundred 89 and the winner, 32.8. Williams, 19 carries for 62 three touchdowns, five catches for 21, 28.8. Prescott, 32 of 45 for 335 and a touchdown, 18.1. Pickens, two catches for 75, 8.5. Ryan Flournoy, four for 37, 5.7. For Houston, Collins 27.3, Stroud 23.1, Jaylin Noel three catches for 85, 10.4.

That's your Cowboys — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._