Cowboys 16, Buccaneers 24 — Week 5: Six Drops, Two Picks

Dallas lost 24-16 to Tampa Bay at home on Thursday night, and the passing game outgained everything on the field and still lost the game for it. Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards. He also threw two interceptions inside the Tampa Bay 30, and the second ended it: down 24-16 with 1:22 left, second and 1 at the Buccaneers 24, he went short middle for Jake Ferguson and Alex Anzalone intercepted at the 12. That snap was worth -4.4 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, and cost 16.5 points of win probability.

The passing game was Muffed by its own hands, and EPA per play shows it. Its 42 pass plays were worth -2.3 EPA, -0.06 a play, against +0.27 a play across Weeks 1–4. That came even though 52.4% of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Prescott went 24 of 42 for 316 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. George Pickens caught 9 of 13 targets for 130 yards, including the 18-yard touchdown deep left on second and 10 with 5:30 left that made it 24-16; the two-point throw to Ryan Flournoy fell incomplete. Flournoy caught 3 of 4 for 90, 48 of them on one deep-middle throw before halftime. CeeDee Lamb, targeted 21 times against Houston in Week 4, caught 2 of 5 for 9 yards.

The charting puts much of the blame downfield. Six of Prescott's 30 catchable throws were dropped, 20%, after 5 drops on 116 catchable throws through Week 4. None of his 42 throws was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 4 through Week 4. Both interceptions came on throws the charters did not flag. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 17 of 42 dropbacks, 40.5%, against the 30.5% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game was efficient and barely used. 13 rush plays were worth +0.7 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.02 through Week 4, with 38.5% successful. Javonte Williams ran 12 times for 45 yards, and his 21-yard run up the middle keyed the opening drive, which he finished from the 1. Tampa Bay showed six or fewer in the box on 7 of 13 designed runs, 53.8%, up from 45.8%. Dallas threw 42 times anyway.

The pass defense improved on its first four weeks and still gave up the biggest play of the night. Tampa Bay's 26 pass plays were worth +5.9 EPA, +0.23 a play, against +0.43 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, so this was better than usual and still bad. Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 25 for 189 yards, and 21 of his 25 throws were charted catchable, 84%, against the 76.1% opponents managed through Week 4. Dallas sent five or more on 9 of 31 dropbacks, 29%, close to its 26.9% through Week 4. Malachi Lawrence had the one sack, 11 yards on first and 10 in the third. Two snaps later Daniels converted third and 21 with a 21-yard throw to Emeka Egbuka, and Tampa Bay kicked a field goal.

The run defense was Muffed, and the success rate allowed tells it: 51.4% of Tampa Bay's 37 rush plays were successful, worth +4.3 EPA, +0.12 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 4. Dallas played light, with six or fewer in the box on 16 of 32 designed runs, 50%, against 35.5% through Week 4, and those 32 runs gained 218 yards. Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown. With 14:54 left in the third, Tampa Bay down 10-7 at its own 14, he ran off left tackle for 72 yards before Caleb Downs pushed him out at the Dallas 14. Egbuka ran around left end for the touchdown on the next snap. The unit's best moment came in the fourth: fourth and 1 at the Dallas 1, down 24-10, Jaishawn Barham stopped Sean Tucker for no gain, a snap worth -4.2 EPA to Tampa Bay.

The game turned between 10:51 and 9:36 of the third quarter. Dallas trailed 14-10 and had third and 3 at the Tampa Bay 27 after a 27-yard catch by Pickens on the previous third down. Prescott threw short middle for Flournoy, and Yaya Diaby intercepted at the 24, a snap worth -4.8 EPA and 15.1 points of win probability. On the drive that followed, second and 14 at the Tampa Bay 21, Daniels threw deep right to Tez Johnson for 64 yards to the Dallas 15, and Irving scored to make it 21-10. Dallas went 4 of 10 on third down and turned the ball over on downs once, on fourth and 3 at its own 43 late in the third.

The scheme went fast and plain. Dallas ran no-huddle on 29.1% of snaps, against 5.6% through Week 4, and cut motion to 31.4% from 45%. Play-action fell to 7 of 42 dropbacks, 16.7%, from 24%, and Prescott completed 3 of those 7 for 32 yards. There were no screens, after 13 through Week 4. Prescott left the pocket 3 times on 42 dropbacks, after 36 times on 167 through Week 4.

Last week's question was whether Prescott's contested rate would come down from a third of his throws. It did, partway: 11 of 42 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 26.2%, still above his 19.3% through Week 4. The new line in the notebook is the drops, more in one game than in the first four combined. The one to watch next: whether the receivers hold onto catchable balls, and whether the run defense keeps playing light boxes after a night when they gave up 218 yards on designed runs.

That's your Cowboys, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._