Cowboys 13, Packers 23 — Week 6: Two Picks, Two Fourth-Down Misses

Dallas lost 23-13 at Green Bay, and two interceptions in Packers territory before halftime left it down 17-0 at the break. The Cowboys turned the ball over twice and took it away once, a margin of -1, and turned it over on downs twice more in the fourth quarter. Javonte Williams's 1-yard run in the third and Ryan Flournoy's 6-yard catch with 52 seconds left were the only scores; the two-point try failed and the onside kick went out of bounds.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the fall. Its 55 pass plays were worth -7.4 EPA, -0.14 a play against +0.20 through Week 5, though 41.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The giveaways did the damage. Dak Prescott completed 34 of 54 for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked once. CeeDee Lamb caught 9 of 18 targets for 70 yards and was the target on both interceptions, both failed fourth downs and the failed two-point try. He also made the biggest gains: 16 yards on third and 3 late in the first to the Green Bay 19, and 17 on fourth and 2 at the Green Bay 38 in the third, down 17-0, +4.0 EPA, on the drive Williams finished. George Pickens caught 6 of 11 for 73, with 16- and 21-yard catches down the left side. Flournoy caught 7 of 9 for 40 and the touchdown.

The run game was efficient in a small sample, and its success rate shows it: 46.7% of 15 rush plays succeeded, for 48 yards. They were worth -1.1 EPA, -0.07 a play against -0.01 through Week 5. Williams ran 11 times for 41, converted third and 1 twice and scored on first and goal from the 1 after runs of 8 and 2.

The pass defense was better than its season and still lost third down. Green Bay converted 11 of 18, and Dallas got off the field on 7. The Packers' 44 pass plays were worth +6.1 EPA, +0.14 a play against +0.39 allowed through Week 5; for a defense a positive number is bad, and this one was smaller than usual. Jordan Love completed 23 of 41 for 276 yards, and Matthew Golden caught 6 of 13 targets for 104 and the opening touchdown. The best snap came with 1:53 left in the first, down 7-0: second and 12 at the Green Bay 39, Dee Winters intercepted a throw for Golden at the 42 and ran it in, until replay ruled him down. It was still worth 10.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Kenny Clark sacked Love for 10 yards on third and 2 in the third, and Quinnen Williams and Elijah Garcia had one each.

The run defense was the best unit on the field, and EPA per play says it: Green Bay's 24 rush plays were worth -0.16 each, against +0.02 Dallas allowed through Week 5; on defense, negative is the good direction. Only 29.2% succeeded, for 59 yards. Joey Porter Jr. and DaRon Bland dropped MarShawn Lloyd for losses of 2 and 3 on first downs in the first quarter, and Lloyd finished with 10 yards on 8 carries. The stand that mattered came in the second quarter, down 7-0: second and 1 at the Dallas 1, Quinnen Williams stopped Pierre Strong for a 1-yard loss, Malik Hooker held Tucker Kraft to no gain on third and 2, and Green Bay kicked a 25-yard field goal.

The game turned on two second-quarter drives that reached Green Bay territory and ended in interceptions. On the quarter's first snap, third and 8 at the Green Bay 17, down 7-0, Prescott threw over the middle for Lamb and Evan Williams picked it off at the 3, -4.3 EPA and 8 points of win probability. With 2:00 left in the half, first and 15 at the Green Bay 28, down 10-0, Brandon Cisse intercepted him at the 18, -4.0 EPA and 9.3 points. Green Bay scored a touchdown with 25 seconds left. The fourth quarter brought two more empty trips: fourth and 2 at midfield down 20-7, and fourth and 11 at the Green Bay 14 down 23-7, both incomplete for Lamb. Dallas ran 15 red-zone snaps and scored 2 touchdowns.

The one to watch next: whether a passing game that came in at +0.20 EPA a play gets back there after a week of two interceptions and two fourth-down misses, and whether a run defense that held Green Bay to 29.2% success keeps it up.

That's your Cowboys, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._